Pure Horserace: Let The Doldrums Begin

Memorial Day marks the traditional start of summer — which also makes it the traditional time for people to tune out of politics. Even in an election year, the public doesn't really become fully engaged in the process until after Labor Day; with no voting going on this year, it's even more likely that people will tune out in favor of spending some time on vacation and outdoors.

Of course, that doesn't mean the campaign is on hold. Republicans will hold a debate on June 5. Democrats will do the same on July 23. Early July will be full of news about the candidates' latest fundraising totals — if you'll be able to hear them over the fireworks. And at some point, Republican Fred Thompson might announce that he's an actual candidate for something more than another term as the district attorney he plays on TV's "Law & Order."

If you're one of those who plans on taking a summer vacation from politics, it might be wise to look at the lay of the land before taking off — even if, according to the latest CBS News poll, it's not too different from where it's been in the past. Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are still the front-runners of their respective parties, but both are showing potential weaknesses.

Giuliani has seen his lead over the rest of the field slip in recent weeks. Since early April, his support among Republican primary voters has dropped 11 percentage points. Where did those people go? Not to John McCain — his numbers also fell, if only slightly. Mitt Romney also saw his support increase from 10 percent to 15 percent. But the biggest beneficiary of Giuliani's drop-off is "Someone Else/None," now supported by 21 percent of respondents.

That's good news for Thompson and, to a lesser extent, Newt Gingrich — who, by the way, says he'll make his plans known after the summer haze has lifted. The best news for both men is the continued dissatisfaction among Republicans, nearly 60 percent of whom said they want more options to choose from.

Among Democrats, Barack Obama appears to be making inroads among black voters, who have been loyal supporters of Bill and Hillary Clinton in the past. Now, they're split fairly evenly between Obama and Clinton. But while Obama has gained support among one group, he may have lost some among others — despite his gains among African Americans, his overall support remains where it was in early April, at 24 percent.

Don't be surprised if these numbers remain pretty much the same throughout the summer. However, do keep an eye on state polls, especially in early primary states. For Iowa and New Hampshire voters, there is no summer vacation from politics.

Of course, there's no summer vacation for Pure Horserace, either. We'll be back on Tuesday.— David Miller

Beach Reading: If rain spoils your holiday weekend, or if you're just trying to pass time on the beach, here are a few other stories that are worth a look:

• In the latest installment of our Political Players series, CBS News' Brian Goldsmith interviews Ann Selzer, who's been conducting the Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll for 20 years. Among other things, she discusses Mitt Romney's recent surge — which, it turns out, might just be for real.
• Two new books about Hillary Clinton are due out — The Washington Post takes a look at both. Neither book is a hatchet job put out by partisan opponents: One was written by Carl Bernstein, half of the team that uncovered Watergate, and the other was penned by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta Jr. of The New York Times. Both paint somewhat unflattering portraits of the Democratic front-runner.
• The Associated Press reports on Joe Biden's iconoclastic campaign style — all the more apparent after Biden became the only Democratic hopeful to vote for the Iraq war funding bill on Thursday night.
• OK, this one is more about viewing than reading: If you want to see Fred Thompson as president, you'll get your chance this weekend by watching HBO's movie adaptation of "Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee," which focuses on the U.S. government's treatment of American Indians following the Civil War. Thompson will play Ulysses S. Grant.
• Don't ever accuse Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen, R-N.J., of not being tough on crime. According to The Associated Press, Frelinghuysen chased down pickpocketers who stole his wallet Thursday in Washington.
• Even though he was widely criticized by many Republicans for his claim that U.S. foreign policy in Iraq led to the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, Rep. Ron Paul has won something he didn't have before — publicity, according to the Houston Chronicle.
• Finally, the San Jose Mercury News has a report that will likely upset those still harboring hopes of a presidential run from Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. She plans on returning to Stanford University, where she once served as provost, to teach international politics.

  Editor's Note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

  By David Miller