Pure Horserace: Edwards On The Offensive

In the past few weeks, the Democratic race has often been dominated by talk of change — what kind is required and which candidate is the most capable of bringing it about. Even Hillary Clinton, who has been part of Washington's political culture for nearly 15 years, has promoted herself as an agent of change. And Barack Obama has made it the central focus of his campaign, arguing that Clinton represents an outdated style of politics that won't solve any contemporary problems.

John Edwards has been making similar arguments, and he's been touting his refusal to accept contributions from Washington lobbyists. Yet he still remains behind both Clinton and Obama in every poll outside of Iowa. But in a speech on Thursday, Edwards sought to take over the mantle of "change candidate" with remarks that were clearly aimed at both Clinton and Obama.

"Small thinking and outdated answers aren't the only problems with a vision for the future that is rooted in nostalgia," Edwards said, in what appeared to be a reference to the former first lady. "The trouble with nostalgia is that you tend to remember what you liked and forget what you didn't. It's not just that the answers of the past aren't up to the job today; it's that the system that produced them was corrupt — and still is."

But Edwards did more than take on Clinton, who is unquestionably a part of the Democratic establishment. He also had strong words for Obama, a relative newcomer to national politics who has pledged to change the way things are done in Washington. "I don't think just the word 'change' means much to people," Edwards told The Associated Press. "I mean, what is the policy of the word? In my case, it's been a very aggressive set of very substantive ideas ... because otherwise the change rhetoric all sounds the same."

Perhaps just as significant as Edwards' words is where he delivered them: Not in the friendly confines of Iowa, but in New Hampshire. In fact, the speech was part of the kickoff for an Edwards bus tour around the state. As a whole, the day signals a desire by Edwards to take on Clinton and Obama on their turf, both literally and figuratively.

But can Edwards be successful? While the former North Carolina senator has done a good job distancing himself from 2004, when he was his party's vice presidential nominee, he still may have a hard time convincing Democratic voters that he's a fresh face who can get things done. Voters who are looking for someone who can implement policy may be drawn to the more experienced Clinton. On the other hand, voters who want to make a dramatic break with the current administration — and the pitched partisanship that has dominated Washington since the early 1990s — may see Obama as the most appealing choice.

One could argue that Edwards would be better off focusing solely on Obama at this point in an attempt to become the "anti-Hillary" candidate of the field. Then again, Clinton's solid leads in the polls suggest that bringing her down a bit may be the only way to prevent her from winning the nomination. Taking on two candidates at once, as Edwards is doing, isn't an easy strategy to pursue, but it could be the only way for him to come out on top. — David Miller

Clinton Leads In … Well, Everywhere: Iowa has long been considered the most problematic state for Hillary Clinton. Its caucuses attract only the most devoted Democrats, many of whom stand to the left of the New York senator. But a new poll suggests that she's even winning over this crowd.

According to the Des Moines Register, a NewsMax/Zogby poll of likely Iowa caucus goers found that 30 percent of them are backing Clinton. John Edwards trailed with 23 percent, while Barack Obama was third with 19 percent. Bill Richardson came in with 10 percent, while all other candidates were in single digits. Since the last Zogby poll in May, Clinton has seen her support increase by 6 percent, while both Edwards and Obama have fallen by 3 percent.

It's worth noting, though, that caucuses are notoriously hard to poll, especially this far in advance. For example, a poll earlier this month done by Peter Hart showed Edwards leading Clinton by 8 percentage points. An ABC News/ Washington Post poll showed Obama, Clinton and Edwards in a statistical dead heat. — David Miller

Dueling Initiatives: Not long ago we reported on a proposed ballot initiative in California that would force the state to abandon the winner-take-all system used for awarding its electoral votes and switch to a system in which votes would be awarded based on which candidate prevailed in each congressional district. The plan would be a boon for Republicans who live in what is now a decisively "blue" state.

That proposal hasn't even made its way onto the June 2008 ballot yet, but according to the Los Angeles Times, Democrats are already putting up a fight in the form of their own proposed initiative that would enter California into a multi-state compact which dictates that California's electoral votes would go to the winner of the nationwide popular vote — as long as enough states enter the compact to determine the election's outcome. One version of the proposal would stipulate that if both it and the GOP-backed measure received majority support, the one with the most number of votes would become law.

California's 2008 primaries were expected to be a pretty sleepy affair, but if both of these proposals wind up on the ballot, you can expect to see coverage of California politics that might rival the state's 2003 gubernatorial recall election. — David Miller

Editor's note: Pure Horserace is a daily update of political news as interpreted by the political observers at CBSNews.com. Click here to sign up for the e-mail version.

By David Miller