Poll shows Romney, Santorum in tight Arizona race

With Arizona's February 28 primary a little over a week away, a new CNN/TIME/ORC Poll shows Mitt Romney neck-and-neck in the state with Republican presidential rival Rick Santorum.

Romney leads Santorum 36 percent to 32 percent among registered Republicans -- a difference within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error.

Newt Gingrich was in third in the poll with 18 percent support, and Ron Paul followed with 6 percent.

Thirty-four percent of registered Republicans said they could still change their minds before Election Day, while 58 percent said they would "definitely support" the candidate they had selected.

Santorum has an edge among born-again Christians, besting Romney 37 percent to 28 percent among that demographic. Romney led Santorum 40 percent to 30 percent among urban voters. In suburban and rural areas, the two were tied with 35 percent.

While Santorum is expected to get a boost from Arizona's evangelical voters,who made up one-third of the GOP primary electorate in 2008, Romney is expected to dominate among Mormons, who made up 11 percent of the 2008 electorate.

A new Gallup tracking poll shows Santorum with a ten-point lead over Romney nationally ahead of nominating contests in Arizona and Michigan on Feb. 28. 

The two candidates are also in a dead heat in Michigan, Romney's home state, although the former Massachusetts governor shows signs of revival in recent polls there. Michigan is considered a crucial get for Romney - not only did the candidate grow up there, but his father served as the state's governor from 1963 to 1969.

While Michigan awards its delegates proportionately, Arizona is a "winner take all" state. The four GOP candidates have thus focused more on Michigan, where even a fourth-place finish can yield delegates.