Poll Roundup: Industrial States
According to new state opinion polls, Al Gore has gained the upper hand over George W. Bush in Michigan, Illinois and Pennsylvania - key industrial states critical to the presidential election.
In a fourth state, Ohio, the two candidates were roughly even, with Republican Bush at 43 percent and Democrat Gore with 41 percent.
Gore was up by 8 points in Michigan, ahead by 15 points in Illinois, and had an 18-point bulge in Pennsylvania, according to the polls conducted by EPIC/MRA of Lansing and released Saturday.
Gore's recent rise in state and national polls was not particularly worrisome to Michigan Gov. John Engler, an adviser to Bush's campaign.
Bush's plan to refocus on his message of improving education and cutting taxes could help the Texas governor regain some of the momentum he has lost in recent weeks, Engler said.
The new poll "just reflects the fact that the message in the last couple weeks has been about debates and peripheral issues and not the central themes of the campaign," Engler said. "I don't think the debate about the debates has been helpful to George Bush."
Democrats are cautious about making too much of the polls showing a lead for Gore in the crucial Midwestern states.
| EPIC/MRA Poll Results When results don't total 100 percent, the remainder either didn't know or refused to answer. MICHIGAN Al Gore, 45 percent George W. Bush, 37 percent Ralph Nader, 2 percent Harry Browne, 1 percent ILLINOIS OHIO PENNSYLVANIA |
"The issues are working for Democrats," Blanchard said, referring to Gore's focus on education, health care, Social Security and the environment.
Ed Sarpolus of EPIC/MRA, said the poll reflects a loss of confidence in Bush by Republican voters. Gore is starting to make inroads into some areas where Bush has been stronger, such as among men and those with moral concerns, he said.
In mid-August, Bush led Gore in Michigan by about the same margin he now trails - 8 points.
The margin in Pennsylvania, similar to another poll taken after the Democratic last month convention, is larger than the campaigns have seen in their internal polling. But it still suggests Bush hs plenty of work to do in states that will help decide the election.
The new numbers suggest Gore is getting the momentum these days, said Mike Young, a political scientist at Penn State University.
"This underscores the clear direction in the momentum of the campaign that Gore has established in the last couple of weeks," he said.
Young suggested Bush's troubles may be related to a series of bumps in the road for the campaign - such as the Texas governor's vulgar remark caught on an open mike and the furor over a Republican ad that flashed the word "RATS" on the screen for a split second.
Pennsylvania pollster G. Terry Madonna of Millersville University said he expected Gore's lead is actually in the high single digits, not 18 points. The race in Illinois has been relatively close in other recent polls.
Gore has been solidifying his base and getting better support from men at the same time that Bush has seen erosion in his base, polls suggest.
Some GOP strategists in the key states say Bush has let Gore skate by relatively unscathed in recent weeks.
"I think, frankly, that George Bush is not punching hard enough," said Tom Roeser, a former corporate lobbyist in Illinois and now a conservative activist. “I think Bush can still win," he said. "But he's got to fight."
The polls were taken Sept. 6-13 with an error margin of 4 percentage points in Michigan's poll of 600 likely voters. In Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania, 400 likely voters were polled in each state, with error margins of 5 percentage points in each.