Poll: Gore, McCain Gain

Both George W. Bush and Bill Bradley have become less popular, while Al Gore and John McCain are enjoying increased favorable ratings and electoral success, according to a national CBS News poll. With 74 percent of voters now paying attention to the 2000 campaign for President, the results of the early contests are affecting opinions nationwide.

In the Republican primary race, while still trailing Bush, McCain has made substantial headway since December.

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PREFERENCE

Bush leads McCain by a significant 20-point margin, 52 percent to 32 percent, but McCain has doubled his share of the vote since the end of last year, when he received only 16 percent to Bush's 64 percent. The race remains potentially volatile: 57 percent of Republican primary voters who expressed a candidate preference say it is too early to decide for sure, and they may still change their minds.

Gore has expanded his lead over Bradley: he currently receives 64 percent of the vote to Bradley's 22 percent. In December, Gore led Bradley 53 percent to 28 percent. While some voters may still switch support, most say they won't: 54 percent of Democratic primary voters who have made a choice say they plan to stick with it.

THE CANDIDATES

Gore's victories in Iowa and New Hampshire have helped not only to increase his electoral margin over Bradley, they have also helped to improve his image with voters.

While still viewed negatively overall, Gore's favorables have increased from 24 percent in December to 30 percent now. Much of this gain comes from Democratic primary voters, 56 percent of whom now view Gore favorably, compared to 42 percent in December.

OPINIONS OF THE DEMOCRATS

Most voters still cannot rate Bradley either positively or negatively, but those who can, view him less favorably now than they did in December: 21 percent of voters have an unfavorable impression of Bradley now, compared to just 13 percent in December.

McCain has become both better known and liked by voters since December. Currently 30 percent of voters have a favorable impression of McCain, compared to 22 percent in December. Among Republican primary voters, McCain's favorable rating has increased from 29 percent to 42 percent. In addition, McCain retains some bipartisan appeal: Democratic primary voters view him positively by 21 percent to 17 percent.

OPINIONS OF THE REPUBLICANS

Bush's popularity, like Bradley's, has taken some hits over the past two months. In December, 37 percent of voters viewed Bush favorably, and 26 percent viewed him unfavorably. Currently, 34 percent view him favorably and 31 percent view him unfavorably.

THE GENERAL ELECTION

Gore's primary surge is currently carrying over into the general election: he is virtually tied with both Bush and McCain in general election trial heats.

GENERAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS

Bush and McCain each lead Gore narrowly, within the poll's margin of error. Bush currently leads Gore 47 percent to 43 percent. In December, Bush led by 12 points: 51 percent to 39. McCain and Gore remain virtually tied: 44 percent to 42 percent respectively. Two months ago Gore had a two-point advantage.

Bradley trails Bush and McCain by nine points and 7 points respectively. In December, Bradley bested McCain 41 percent to 33 percent.

THE MICHAEL JORDAN FACTOR

It is difficult to measure whether Michael Jordan's recent endorsement of Bradley will help the former senator. Jordan is tremendously popuar throughout the country, and is seen as one of the leading role models for black youth today.

WHO IS THE BEST ROLE MODEL FOR TODAY'S BLACK YOUTH?

Twelve percent of blacks name Michael Jordan as the best role model for young blacks, roughly the same who name the Reverends Jesse Jackson and Martin Luther King, Jr. Among whites, Jordan trails King and General Colin Powell, but remains in the top four.

Given Jordan's status among African-Americans, his endorsement could help Bradley with this key Democratic constituency. Up to this point, however, Bradley has fared poorly with black voters: he currently trails Gore 15 percent to 77 percent among African-Americans.

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