Poll: Gore Ahead In Battleground States

Vice President Al Gore, spurred by a surge in support from women and a belief among likely voters that he has a better grasp of the issues, is building a clear lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush in three of five key battleground states, according to a new poll.

Gore also is seen as more personable and thoughtful than the Republican governor and voters favor Gore's policies on issues they consider most important, according to the poll published in Sunday's editions of the Chicago Tribune.

The candidates are statistically tied in Ohio and Michigan, while Gore holds a slim lead in Pennsylvania. Gore leads Bush by 17 points in New Jersey and 12 points in Illinois. The race is within the 4-percentage-point margin of error in Michigan and Ohio and Gore is 5 points ahead in Pennsylvania.

Green Party nominee Ralph Nader has the support of about 4 percent of voters in the five states. Reform Party candidate Patrick Buchanan's support is at 1 percent, according to the poll.

The number of undecided voters in the five states range from 11 percent to 14 percent. About one in six voters who said they have decided on a candidate said they still could change their mind.

The survey indicates Gore is building his lead in Illinois and New Jersey on support from women, particularly a crucial block of suburban women among whom he has a marginal edge over Bush. Gore has an overwhelming advantage among women in cities and single women overall.

Married women who do not work outside the home favor Bush by a wide margin, but married women who are employed favor Gore, the Tribune reported.

Voters in the five states now view Bush and Gore equally when asked which is the “stronger, more decisive leader.” When asked which candidate has a better and more thoughtful grasp of the issues, 47 percent said Gore, 28 percent said Bush.

The poll, conducted Sept. 11-17 by Market Shares Corp. of Mount Prospect, Ill., also indicates widespread satisfaction with the economy. Only about 10 percent of voters questioned characterized themselves as worse off than they were four years ago.

Voters appear skeptical of Bush's proposal for across-the-board tax cuts. Only 18 percent said most of the federal budget surplus should go to tax cuts; 49 percent said only some of the surpluses should go for them.

“Voters can be expected to be dubious of promises of massive tax cuts, especially voters not voting for Bush, as well as Democrats and independents,” said Nick Panagakis, who directed the survey.

“Lack of broader support for tax cuts could be because many believe they wouldn't personally benefit from either Gore's targeted tax cut or because they believe most of Bush's would go to the wealthy.”

A majority of voters said both men would be a very good or above average president, though Gore holds a significant lead over Bush on that question, 60 perent to 52 percent.

The newspaper's pollsters surveyed 2,703 registered voters who said they are likely to cast ballots in Illinois, Ohio, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Michigan — states many analysts believe could swing the election in November. Five hundred randomly selected voters were surveyed by telephone in Ohio, New Jersey, Michigan and Pennsylvania, while 703 Illinois voters were questioned.