Politics Today: Obama Makes Campaign-Style Trip to Fla.
Politics Today is CBSNews.com's inside look at the key stories driving the day in politics, written by CBS News Political Director Steve Chaggaris:
** Afghanistan war games...
** Obama lays the groundwork for 2012...
** Will Virginia serve as a bellwether for 2010?...
The Washington Post's Greg Jaffe and Karen DeYoung report, "The Pentagon's top military officer oversaw a secret war game this month to evaluate the two primary military options that have been put forward by the Pentagon and are being weighed by the Obama administration as part of a broad-based review of the faltering Afghanistan war, senior military officials said.
"The exercise, led by Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, examined the likely outcome of inserting 44,000 more troops into the country to conduct a full-scale counterinsurgency effort aimed at building a stable Afghan government that can control most of the country. It also examined adding 10,000 to 15,000 more soldiers and Marines as part of an approach that the military has dubbed 'counterterrorism plus.'…
"The Pentagon war game did not formally endorse either course; rather, it tried to gauge how Taliban fighters, the Afghan and Pakistani governments and NATO allies might react to either of the scenarios. Mullen, a key player in the game, has discussed its conclusions with senior White House officials involved in the discussions over the new strategy."
"Top lawmakers sparred Sunday over the timing of President Barack Obama's decision on how to move ahead in Afghanistan, with Republicans urging a quick move to boost troop levels and Democrats counseling patience," adds the Associated Press' Matthew Lee.
"In partisan displays, senators generally agreed on the need to support whatever Afghan government emerges from a Nov. 7 run-off election between President Hamid Karzai and challenger Abdullah Abdullah. But they differed on exactly how to do that and when.
"Republicans said Obama must sign off soon on a recommendation from the top commander in Afghanistan, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, to substantially increase the number of American troops there by as many as 40,000 or more. Democrats warned against a hasty decision on any increase. ...
"None of the Republicans would second a claim made last week by former Vice President Dick Cheney that Obama is 'dithering' in making a decision, but they agreed that continued delay would endanger the 68,000 U.S. soldiers now on the ground in Afghanistan."
Meantime, in Baghdad, "Two synchronized suicide car bombings struck at the heart of the Iraqi government here on Sunday, severely damaging the Justice Ministry and provincial council complexes, leaving a scene of carnage that raised new questions about the government's ability to secure its most vital operations," reports the New York Times' Timothy Williams.
"The bombers apparently passed through multiple security checkpoints before detonating their vehicles within a minute of each other, leaving at least 132 dead and more than 520 wounded strewn across crowded downtown streets. Blast walls had been moved back off the road in front of both buildings in recent weeks.
5356466OBAMA TO FLORIDA: Following his national security meeting, President Obama heads to Florida – a trip that, while designed to help next year's Democratic races there, could also be laying the groundwork for his re-election bid in 2012, writes Politico's Carol E. Lee.
"This trip, more than any the president has taken since January, looks like a campaign swing. The itinerary and the events are crafted to accentuate positives – health care and the economy are not on the agenda – and to squeeze the most into his time there.
"'He's doing very much what George W. Bush did when he got elected, visiting Florida and Pennsylvania, states he wanted to flip or keep in his column,' said David Johnson, a Republican political consultant. 'They're shoring up for 2012.'
"Obama will hit three of the swing state's largest media markets. He begins in Jacksonville, stays overnight in Miami and flies to a rural area in a moderate Republican congressional district near Tampa Tuesday morning before returning to Washington. Along the way the president will energize new Democrats and the traditional faithful and engage the state's independent and moderate Republican voters who were pivotal to his election.
"When President Barack Obama swings into Miami Beach Monday night to raise money for Democratic congressional candidates, it will be the 26th fund-raiser of his maiden year in office, compared with the six appearances by his predecessor, George W. Bush, in his first year of office," writes the Wall Street Journal's Jonathan Weisman.
"Just last week, the president raised millions of dollars for the Democrat running for an open Republican House seat in New York, the Democratic National Committee, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd. Beyond fund raising, he rallied Democratic faithful for New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine Wednesday and will do the same on Tuesday for Creigh Deeds, the Democrat facing an uphill fight for the Virginia governor's seat...
"White House officials say Mr. Obama's pace is driven by fund-raising rules Mr. Bush didn't face early in his term that prevent individual donors from writing large checks to the political parties. It is also a sign that the president understands the headwinds his party faces in the 2010 midterm election."
"Senate leaders plan to submit the bill to the Congressional Budget Office for a cost estimate as soon as Monday, and make the legislation public as soon as Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the negotiations…
"Mr. Reid spent the weekend shoring up support for the bill from Democrats in the chamber. But some key moderate Democrats signaled Sunday that they remain uneasy about main planks of the legislation. 'I certainly am not excited about a public option where states would opt out,' Sen. Ben Nelson (D., Neb.) said on CNN's 'State of the Union.'"
"Several Democratic senators voiced optimism on Sunday that Congress would pass a health care bill containing at least the germ of a government-run insurance program. Their expectations were grudgingly seconded by Senator John McCain, the Republican presidential candidate in 2008," add the New York Times' Joseph Berger.
"'I think the Democrats have the votes, and in the House, Blue Dogs bark but never bite,' Mr. McCain said on CBS's 'Face the Nation,' using the nickname for conservative Democrats . 'So I don't think they have a problem over in the House side. In the Senate I think the Democrats are very aware that they don't want a repeat of the Clinton failure in 1994. So I think it's very likely they will get something through. But it's not clear to me what it is.' ...
"One question is what kind of public option — a full-blown government-insurance plan, or something like a 'trigger' provision, which would create a government-run or nonprofit plan if insurance companies did not cut costs within a set period of time or under certain conditions. ... Senator Charles E. Schumer, the New York Democrat, said on NBC's 'Meet the Press' that he thought the Democrats were close to 60 votes in the Senate."
Washington Post's Ceci Connolly, "Next phase in health-care debate: The art of the deal": "The shift into dealmaking mode is both good news for President Obama and an indication that the most arduous work is yet to come. Although Democrats are nearing a compromise on a government insurance option, large hurdles remain.
"The party in power is divided over how to pay for health-care legislation, and it could easily become sidetracked by emotional issues such as abortion. Most important, Democrats are still searching for the right recipe for making insurance affordable for average Americans.
"Chris Jennings, who worked on the Clinton administration's attempt to overhaul the health-care system, compared this phase of the debate to the final third of a marathon. 'It is the most challenging and the most rewarding part of the race,' he said. 'The problem is, it is the most painful part as well.'"
"The number of people who remain uninsured will depend on how House and Senate leaders reconcile separate versions of health care legislation to arrive at a final bill. The factors include the size of government subsidies to help low-income families pay for insurance and the scope of penalties that would be charged for those who don't buy a plan. ...
"Details of the House and Senate proposals are evolving. Lawmakers, including Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, D-Mont., have said that no matter how the legislation is crafted, not everyone will have coverage. Those who could remain uninsured include: Those who can't afford it. ... Individuals and families who choose to pay a penalty instead of buying insurance. ... People who are eligible for Medicaid and other programs but do not enroll."
Politico's Carrie Budoff Brown, "Dems push for benefits to start by 2010": "Democrats are pushing Senate leaders and the White House to speed up key benefits in the health reform bill to 2010, eager to give the party something to show taxpayers for their $900 billion investment in an election year. The most significant changes to the health care system wouldn't kick in until 2013 – two election cycles away. With Republicans expected to make next year a referendum on health care reform, Democrats are quietly lobbying to push up the effective dates on popular programs, so they'll have something to run on in the congressional midterms."
Washington Post's Alec MacGillis, "If you build a coverage mandate, will they come?": "[T]he question of whether people will follow a government order that they carry health insurance -- an issue that will help determine whether universal health care is a success or costly failure -- will depend on more than the penalty they would pay for refusing, many economists say. This, they say, is the lesson of behavioral economics, a school of thought that holds that people do not necessarily make decisions out of well-reasoned self-interest. It is an approach that has gained a powerful foothold in the Obama White House."
LA Times' Noam N. Levey and Lisa Girion, "Insurers poised to reap benefits from healthcare overhaul": "As President Obama's push for a healthcare overhaul moves toward its final act, the oft-vilified health insurance industry is on the verge of seeing a plan enacted that largely protects its financial interests. That achievement, should it stand up in the final legislation, would be the capstone of a sophisticated lobbying and strategic campaign that began even before Obama was elected president."
"Polls suggest that the Republicans could win the governor's office on Nov. 3 for the first time in more than a decade. One of only two statewide races this year -- the other is the governor's race in New Jersey -- the Virginia contest is being watched as a referendum not only on the Democrats' appeal in the region, but also on the party's agenda next door in Washington.
"President Barack Obama will campaign in the state on Tuesday to help boost fellow Democrat Creigh Deeds, a state senator from rural western Virginia. In a troubling sign for the Democrats, however, White House aides speaking on background already have started taking shots at Deeds as a poor candidate, lest pundits blame Obama for his defeat."
"The [Deeds] campaign now sees its hope in rallying the core, liberal Democratic activists who have so far been uninspired by his candidacy and the broad coalition of minorities, young people and less-engaged voters who led Virginia to support Barack Obama after four decades of backing Republican presidential candidates," adds the Washington Post's Sandhya Somashekhar.
"The state senator from Bath County will be helped along Tuesday by Obama, who will hold a rally for him at Old Dominion University in Norfolk. The gesture could be too little, too late. Deeds kept the president at a distance over the summer as the moderate and rural voters who have made up his base grew uncomfortable with Obama's domestic agenda.
"Last week, Deeds made less-than-enthusiastic comments about the possible public option for health care, alienating some liberal Obama supporters who have made health care their primary focus since November. And environmentally minded Democrats are unhappy with a recent ad in which Deeds criticized the climate change legislation making its way through Congress.
"Campaign workers say they have struggled to motivate the party's liberal base in Northern Virginia, even though the election is being viewed as a first test of Obama's political strength."
In New Jersey, "Another heavy-hitting Democrat is going to bat for Governor Corzine," writes the Bergen Record's Matthew Van Dusen. "Former President Bill Clinton will join Corzine at a Tuesday evening rally in a Little Falls union hall, according to a news release from Democratic State Committee Chairman Joseph Cryan. Corzine is in a dead heat with Republican Chris Christie as the gubernatorial race enters its final full week, and his campaign has called on the Democratic Party's biggest political stars.
"Most notably, President Obama stumped for Corzine at Fairleigh Dickinson University in Hackensack last Wednesday, and will be in Newark and Camden on Sunday, two days before the election. Caroline Kennedy and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell also have lent their support in recent weeks."
Meantime, "Suspicion runs rampant when a candidate becomes a major factor in a race that appears to be a near tie between the big-party nominees," writes Cynthia Burton of the Philadelphia Inquirer. "Independent pollsters and analysts say [Independent Chris] Daggett's recent surge in popularity hurts Republican nominee Christopher J. Christie a little more than it hurts Corzine.
"'Without Daggett, Christie would be in better shape,' said David Redlawsk, a political scientist and director of the Rutgers University poll. 'Corzine has simply sat where he is, not able to break that 40 percent number, while Christie has gone down as Daggett has gone up.'
"Christie's campaign, supplemented by the Republican Governors Association, spent the last two weeks attacking Daggett, stepping up its attacks last week. It has tried to brand him as the 'second Democrat' in the race, or 'Corzine light' - appeals to voters it believes could drift his way."
ALSO:
NY Times' Stephen Labaton, "Trying to Rein In 'Too Big to Fail' Institutions"
Bloomberg News' John McCormick, "More Bank Regulation Needed, Durbin Tells Protesters in Chicago"
Wall Street Journal's Ian Talley, "Senate Panel Set to Take on Climate Bill"
Politics Daily's Lynn Sweet, "Obama Golfs With Adviser Melody Barnes – First Female to Join Him on Links"
LA Times' Tom Hamburger and Alexander C. Hart, "White House confronts the U.S. Chamber of Commerce"
Bloomberg News' Julianna Goldman, "Obama Adviser Emanuel Set to Speak to Critics at U.S. Chamber"
Washington Post's Paul Kane and Carol D. Leonnig, "Rep. Visclosky and lobbying firm can be swift path to earmarks": " Democrat supported funds for tech companies, many of which supported him"