Politics Today: Economic Issues Dominate in Elections
Politics Today is CBSNews.com's inside look at the key stories driving the day in politics, written by CBS News Political Director Steve Chaggaris:
** Republicans win by focusing on fiscal and pocketbook issues...
** What it all means for Team Obama...
** Senate Democrats push back their health care deadlines...
Lesson 1: To avoid proving the theory that 2008 was an election solely about Obama and not a Democratic movement, they must figure out a way to avoid last night's lackadaisical effort from the voters that came out in record numbers for President Obama . Young voters were virtually not a factor; their share of the electorate was down 50 percent from last year in both New Jersey and Virginia. Plus, African-American turnout in Virginia was down 4 percent. Yes, this could be saying something about the quality of this year's Democratic candidates but it also is just as likely it's a reflection of the fact that Mr. Obama wasn't on the ballot. Problem is: he won't be on the ballot next year either.
Lesson 2: After the Republicans come off their Cloud Nine, they have a major issue to resolve within their own party: in what direction is the GOP going? The McDonnell and Christie victories are textbook examples of how Republicans can win in places where they're not necessarily expected to win. And they did it by attracting large numbers of independents and by focusing on fiscal and pocketbook issues, not social issues.
However, social conservatives are still fired up over their derailing of the moderate (they say liberal) candidate in New York's 23rd Congressional District and are threatening to move the party far right. Great for them, however, their chosen candidate in NY-23, Doug Hoffman lost in that moderate district last night, a district held by Republicans for over a century.
Sen. John Cornyn, R-Tex., head of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, who's taken some heat from the right for his support of some moderate Senate candidates (see Charlie Crist), offered his blueprint for the party in a statement this morning: "We must continue to step forward and offer positive common-sense alternatives to strengthen the economy, grow jobs here at home and reform our health care system in way that lowers premiums instead of driving up taxes. We must also continue to stand firm on fiscal responsibility and against the big government, big spending proposals put forward by the Democrats who have been treating the federal treasury as their own personal credit card."
Nothing about social issues. Let's see how the GOP proceeds through next year's primaries before declaring a GOP comeback.
Lesson 3: It's the economy, stupid. 89 percent of New Jersey voters and 85 percent of Virginia voters said they're worried about the direction of the economy. A sure way for the incumbent party to continue to lose independent voters is for voters to continue to have those views on the economy. Democrats really have to hope that things turn around in the next year or else they may be waking up with huge headaches come Election Day 2010.
Virginia: Richmond Times-Dispatch's Tyler Whitley, "McDonnell leads GOP sweep of statewide races"
New Jersey: Newark Star-Ledger's Claire Heininger and Josh Margolin, "Republican Chris Christie ousts Jon Corzine in N.J. governor's race"
NY-23: Watertown Daily Times' Nancy Madsen, "Owens Takes Election"
Maine same-sex marriage repeal: Portland Press Herald's Susan M. Cover, "Mainers vote down gay marriage law"
CA-10: San Francisco Chronicle's Joe Garofoli, "Garamendi beats field for Tauscher's seat"
NYC Mayor: NY Daily News' David Saltonstall and Celeste Katz, "In wake of 5% loss to Mayor Bloomberg, Dems left asking, 'What if we'd done more for Bill Thompson'"
Atlanta Mayor: Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Eric Stirgus, "Norwood and Reed in runoff Dec. 1": "The race gained national attention in recent weeks, largely because of the prospect that [Mary] Norwood, who is white, might win in a predominantly African-American city. If she does win in December, Norwood will be the first white mayor of Atlanta since Sam Massell left office in 1973."
Houston Mayor: Houston Chronicle's Bradley Olson and James Pinkerton, "Parker, Locke in runoff for Houston mayor": "The unpredictable and unorthodox race for Houston mayor narrowed Tuesday to a choice between a veteran City Hall insider trying to become Houston's first openly gay leader and a former civil rights activist hoping to become only the second African-American to run the nation's fourth-largest city. City Controller Annise Parker and former City Attorney Gene Locke, the two candidates originally predicted by many to prevail at the race's outset, face each other in a Dec. 12 runoff."
Boston Mayor: Boston Globe's Donovan Slack and Michael Levenson, "5th term for Menino"
NY Times' Adam Nagourney: "The Republican victories in the races for New Jersey and Virginia governors put the party in a stronger position to turn back the political wave President Obama unleashed last year, setting the stage for Republicans to raise money, recruit candidates and ride the excitement of an energized base as the party heads into next year's midterm elections.
"But a Democratic victory in an upstate New York Congressional district — after an ideologically pitched battle between moderates and conservatives over how best to lead Republicans back to power — signaled that the Republican Party faces continued upheaval. The Democratic victory came over a conservative candidate who, with the enthusiastic backing of national conservative leaders and well-financed grass-roots organizations, had forced out a Republican candidate who supported abortion rights and gay rights."
Washington Post's Dan Balz: "For months, polls have shown that independents were increasingly disaffected with some of Obama's domestic policies. They have expressed reservations about the president's health-care efforts and have shown concerns about the growth in government spending and the federal deficit under his leadership.
"Tuesday's elections provided the first tangible evidence that Republicans can win their support with the right kind of candidates and the right messages. That is an ominous development for Democrats if it continues unabated into next year. But Republicans could squander that opportunity if they demand candidates who are too conservative to appeal to the middle.
"McDonnell pitched his campaign toward the center of the electorate, offering Republicans a model for how to reach independents. But the uproar in New York's 23rd Congressional District, where a populist conservative uprising drove the hand-picked Republican nominee out of the race, showed that ideological warfare still threatens the party."
Politico's John F. Harris and Jonathan Martin: "Independents took flight from Democrats. They suffered humiliating gubernatorial losses in traditionally Democratic New Jersey, where Obama lent his prestige in a pair of 11th-hour campaign rallies Sunday, and in Virginia, which had been trending leftward and just last year was held up as an example of how Obama was redrawing the political map in his favor.
"Tuesday night's trends were emphatically not in Obama's favor. Among those paying closest attention are dozens of Democrats who won formerly Republican congressional districts in 2006 and 2008 and are up for re-election in 2010. Many of these pick-ups that powered the Democrats' recapture of Congress came in Southern and Border states, or the Ohio River Valley, where political conditions are similar to those in Virginia.
"Obama now faces a much tougher challenge persuading these mostly moderate Democrats to put themselves further at risk by backing such liberal priorities as expanding government's role in heath care or limiting greenhouse gases."
Slate's John Dickerson: "Washington Republicans have been trying to nationalize these gubernatorial elections: Voters were reacting to Obama's policies, they say. That's a stretch. Neither Republican candidate tried to run against Obama. (In Virginia, Bob McDonnell actually praised Obama when he won the Nobel Peace Prize.) But all this talk about Obama also obscures a better message: For the GOP, the stronger argument coming out of the 2009 elections is that voters are embracing Republican ideas. The GOP won in a purple state and in a solidly Democratic state."
CBS News analysis:
"What McDonnell's Win Means for the GOP, Obama"
"Corzine's Fall Has Been Festering for a While"
"What Doug Hoffman's Loss Means to Conservatives"
"Lessons for the White House from '09 Election Results"
"Why Christie Won in New Jersey"
"McDonnell Won Due to Turnout, Independents"
"Exit Polls in Va. and N.J.: The Obama (Non) Factor?"
HEALTH CARE: "Time is running short for Congress to deliver a health bill to President Barack Obama before the end of the year, prompting lawmakers to prepare for the debate to carry into 2010," report the Wall Street Journal's Janet Adamy and Patrick Yoest.
"Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid indicated Tuesday that the chamber may not meet its goal of passing a bill in the next several weeks. 'We're not going to be bound by any timelines,' the Nevada Democrat said.
"Democrats have worked to get the measure done before next year, when midterm elections could make some senators uneasy about voting for a sweeping bill.
"In the House, Democrats are still pressing to vote on their health bill before they leave for the Veterans Day break that starts Nov. 11. Republicans are fine-tuning a 230-page health bill of their own that's more limited."
"Although they have yet to achieve the 'gang' status accorded to previous centrist coalitions, a dozen or so moderate Democrats are emerging as pivotal to the fate of the health-care measure -- beginning with the procedural vote that Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) must win to launch the historic debate.
"Moderates have raised numerous concerns about aspects of the bill, including the public insurance option that liberals persuaded Reid to add last week. Although Reid included an 'opt out' provision for states that don't want to participate, many moderate Democrats prefer a 'trigger' mechanism, proposed by their lone Republican ally, Sen. Olympia J. Snowe (Maine). Her approach would allow government-backed coverage only in states where private insurers fail to offer broadly affordable plans.
"The list of complaints stretches on: Some senators, including Mary Landrieu (D-La.), want to do more to protect small businesses. Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.) has sought to shield the medical-device manufacturers in his state from hefty fees. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) dislikes provisions that would lift federal antitrust protections for insurance companies and would create a new government insurance program for long-term care."
NY Times' Robert Pear and David M. Herszenhorn, "G.O.P. Counters With a Health Plan of Its Own": "House Republicans have come up with an answer to Speaker Nancy Pelosi, drafting an alternative health care bill that would reward states for reducing the number of uninsured, limit damages in medical malpractice lawsuits and allow small businesses to band together and buy insurance exempt from most state regulation.
"In its opening section, the Republican bill, which has no chance of passing, promises to lower health care costs and expand insurance coverage 'without raising taxes, cutting Medicare benefits for seniors, adding to the national deficit, intervening in the doctor-patient relationship or instituting a government takeover of health care.'
"The bill defines the differences between Republicans and Democrats, who intend to take up their bill on the House floor this week, after resolving intramural disputes over abortion and immigration."
LA Times' James Oliphant, "Abortion language complicates Democratic health efforts"
NY Times' Julia Preston, "Health Care Debate Focuses on Legal Immigrants"
"Federal lawmakers and people who work for them have gotten their hands on scores of tickets to the sold-out World Series games this year between the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies courtesy of a perk not available to the public. ...
"Rep. Tim Holden (D., Pa.) contacted the Philadelphia Phillies and bought a ticket for $225 to attend Game 3 of the World Series in Philadelphia, according to Holden spokeswoman Trish Reilly. Mr. Holden's father, Joe Holden, was a catcher for the Phillies in the mid-1930s. 'He's been calling the Phillies [for tickets] like he's been doing for 30 years,' Ms. Reilly said."