Politics May Not Be Local

Dotty Lynch is the Senior Political Editor for CBS News. E-mail your questions and comments to Political Points

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson fresh back from North Korea called from the car last week as he was dashing from New Jersey to Virginia, the two states which are having gubernatorial races this year. "Elections for governor are decided by local issues," rasped Richardson who also heads the Democratic Governor's Association. "It just you national folks who want to make them about something else."

The line "All politics are local" was a favorite of the late House Speaker Tip O'Neill who believed that people vote on personal pocketbook issues. Voters are particularly pragmatic in state and local elections where the outcome affects the nitty gritty of day to day life — schools, transportation, crime, garbage and snow removal, etc.

Local issues and voters have had a hard time getting noticed in New Jersey where two multi-millionaires are self funding their race with a little help from their national parties. Democratic Sen. Jon Corzine, the former head of Goldman Sachs whose net worth is in the nine figure range is running against Republican drug benefits executive Doug Forrester whose net is merely in the eight figure category and attack ads and gossip about their personal lives have dominated the media — paid and free — in the final days of the campaign. Corzine's campaign thought it had put to rest the issue of the half million dollar loan that Corzine had given to an ex-girl-friend who was the head of a powerful state union when his aggrieved ex-wife lobbed a blockbuster quote to the New York Times. The Forrester campaign which was lagging in the polls wasted no time in turning the quote into a 15 second ad.

The words of Joanne Corzine: "When I saw the campaign ad where Andrea Forrester said, 'Doug never let his family down and he won't let New Jersey down,' all I could think was that Jon did let his family down, and he'll probably let New Jersey down, too," scrolled across the screen over somber music and black backdrop. Corzine's campaign says that this is not a problem for them — and his seven pollsters should know — but the final polls out over the weekend showed his lead back down in single digits. And many pundits believe his mega-bucks get-out-the-vote operation may be able to trump the ex-wife.

The Corzine folks countered the "wife" ad with one comparing Forrester's tactics to those of Karl Rove.

The Forrester campaign was not without its own scent of a scandal. A whisper campaign that Forrester had been involved with a former Miss New Jersey found its voice in a reporter from WNBC who asked Forrester in a debate if he had ever cheated on his wife. Forrester said he never had sex with anyone else. Republican Forrester has tried to tie Corzine to corruption in New Jersey and the muck surrounding the departures of former Gov. Jim McGreevey and Rep. Bob Torricelli from office over the past few years. If the polls are right and Corzine wins, his first act will be to replace himself in the Senate for the remaining year of his term. Rep. Bob Menendez has been the leading candidate, but on Thursday, former Sen. Bill Bradley endorsed acting Gov. Dick Codey for the seat.
Stay tuned.

The muck has been more issue-oriented in Virginia, a state that could test the local vs. national question. Republicans have worried that the problems affecting the Bush White House have spilled over to the neighboring red state of Virginia and hurt the chances of Virginia Attorney General Jerry Kilgore. They believe that Democratic voters have become emboldened by the GOP woes and by the strong popularity of the incumbent term-limited governor Mark Warner. Kilgore even skipped an appearance with President Bush when he was in the state and political guru Karl Rove had to cancel a fundraiser held during the height of the media frenzy around his potential indictment.

But on the Monday night before the election — well after the evening news — President Bush will make an appearance with Kilgore in attempt to turn out the Republican base. The problem is that it could energize the Democratic base even more. Democratic Gov. Mark Warner is gearing up for a presidential run and his Lt. Gov. Tim Kaine is hoping that Warner's better than 70 percent popularity rating will rub off on him. Democratic rising star, Illinois Senator Barack Obama has campaigned for Kaine in African American neighborhoods.

Kilgore's campaign has run on a number of local issues especially traffic and taxes but the greatest notice has come on conservative social issues. He has bombarded the airwaves with controversial spots on the death penalty and immigration. Some polling showed that the death penalty ad, which had relatives of crime victims claiming that Kaine didn't even support the death penalty for Adolph Hitler, may have backfired. Kilgore also made a heavy ad buy in the final week of the campaign on immigration accusing Tim Kaine of being soft on illegal immigrants who are threatening Virginians jobs and schools. A Democratic consultant said they are all watching this closely to see if immigration takes off as an issue in Virginia. This could be a harbinger of what might come up in 2006 — particularly in Senate races against Democratic incumbents in Red states.

There are also hundreds of cities having municipal elections on Tuesday. The Democratic city of New York is poised to extend the 12-year string of Republican mayors although the current Republican looks more to the left than many Democrats. Mayor Michael Bloomberg who took over from another Republican Mayor Rudy Giuliani only six weeks after 911 has spent at least $75 million on his reelection campaign. The Clintons have done some cursory campaigning for Democratic candidate, Fernando Ferrer, but this should be an early night in New York.

Three other incumbent mayors may not have it as easy as Mike Bloomberg. In Cleveland Democratic Mayor Jane Campbell is trailing her opponent as is Detroit's Mayor Kwame Kirkpatrick. Both have had rocky first terms. In St. Paul national politics surfaced again. Incumbent Democratic Mayor Randy Kelly who broke ranks in 2004 and endorsed George Bush is trailing far behind public interest lawyer Chris Coleman. Sen. John Kerry came into St. Paul and campaigned for Coleman.

Voters in seven states will vote on ballot measures ranging from same sex marriage to election reform. The greatest amount of money and media attention are on the referenda in California were Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger called the special election to try to get himself out of a political hole. This is a case of be careful what you wish for. While Schwarzenegger has raised and spent millions to push his proposals the outside groups, in particular the teachers' unions have spent over a hundred million dollars to defeat them and their focus has been on ads attacking Schwarzenegger. His poll ratings have plummeted since the ads went on the air and only 36 percent say they are inclined to vote for him for re-election in 2006. An L.A. Times poll last week showed Schwarzenegger losing to all potential Democratic candidates except Warren Beatty. Even Rob Reiner has a small lead over the Terminator.

All but one of the California referenda, including two which would on cap drug costs, are trailing. The exception is one that would require parents to be notified before a minor child has an abortion. Beware of referenda polling, however. Turnout is likely to be low in off year electrons and voters often react differently to proposals when they read the entire description than when they hear the condensed version in a survey.

On Wednesday the losers will say that we shouldn't read too much into off-year elections and the winners will claim the reverse. The Republicans in Washington really want at least a mixed result to help them stem the Democratic momentum. And, my guess is that if the Democrats do well, even Gov. Richardson will be able to see national implications.