Palin's absence from convention may expose rift
If one of Mitt Romney's goals in choosing a running mate was to mine the same mother lode of conservative excitement that John McCain tapped by picking Sarah Palin four years ago, there's one additional dilemma for Romney to address: Palin is still around.
A day after Romney unveiled House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan as his vice-presidential pick, Palin suggested in a statement posted by her Fox News colleague Greta Van Susteren that she would not speak at the 2012 Republican National Convention in Tampa.
"This year is a good opportunity for other voices to speak at the convention and I'm excited to hear them," Palin said in the statement, which was widely interpreted to signal that hers would not be among those voices.
Palin's apparent decision to steer clear of this year's convention came almost four years after she took the 2008 presidential race by storm with her speech accepting the GOP vice-presidential nomination in St. Paul, Min. -- a performance that electrified the party faithful and received almost universal praise from previously skeptical pundits.
Within days, the McCain/Palin ticket had surged to the lead in the RCP Average before a series of public stumbles and the near-collapse of the nation's financial system led ultimately to the Republicans' defeat.
Though the differences between that vice-presidential rollout and his own are innumerable, Romney's selection of Ryan has likewise generated a surge of enthusiasm in the conservative base that had previously rallied to Romney largely by default.
According to Romney spokesperson Andrea Saul, the Republican campaign raised $3.5 million online in the 24 hours following Romney's selection of Ryan, and the GOP ticket was greeted over the weekend by the largest crowds of the former Massachusetts governor's candidacy, though the numbers have been less massive than the tens of thousands who regularly turned out for Palin's 2008 appearances.
Though she has faded from her once commanding perch on the national political scene, Palin's role in the Republican Party heading into the campaign's final stretch remains a consequential matter for the Romney team to address.
The former Alaska governor has demonstrated a continued ability to wield significant influence, particularly in Senate and House primary races, but her penchant for doing things her own way has left the lingering possibility that she could either boost the standard-bearer or become a thorn in his side.
For this reason, it was notable when she initially offered only a lukewarm reaction to Romney's selection of Ryan.
On Saturday night, the former Alaska governor posted on her Facebook page a statement that clocked in at over 1,100 words, in which she attacked President Obama's policies and compared the nation's fiscal mess to California's, but offered only cursory congratulations to Romney for choosing Ryan and declining to praise specifically any of the Wisconsin congressman's attributes as a running mate.
The following morning, two Republican sources with knowledge of discussions between the Palin and Romney camps told RCP that Palin would not attend the convention after not receiving an invitation to speak in prime time.
"They've got Ryan now, so they think they've got the Tea Party covered," one of the sources said.
Two Palin aides did not respond to requests for confirmation that she would not speak in Tampa, but the 2008 VP nominee appeared on Fox News later on Sunday and offered up a far more full-throated endorsement of the GOP ticket than the one that she had provided earlier.
"With Paul Ryan, who's known for his conscientious concern for our budget and for getting America out of debt, this makes it tougher for Obama to continue to do his distracting and dividing and pivoting off the economy because this ticket representing this campaign is about the economy," she said. "There's a lot of us who will have his back."
In the interview, Palin was not asked why she had declined in her initial statement to join other national Republicans in heaping praise on Ryan, but her newly effusive tone surely came as a relief to the Romney campaign.
Shortly after her Fox News appearance, Palin released her statement to Van Susteren indicating that she would not speak at the convention, but the question of how prominent a role the Romney campaign had been willing to grant her remained.
A Romney campaign spokesperson declined to comment on whether Palin had been offered a prime-time speaking window in Tampa, rather than a less coveted daytime slot.
"Gov. Palin is an important voice and leader in the Republican Party," Romney campaign manager Matt Rhoades said in an emailed statement to RCP. "While she will be missed in Tampa, Gov. Romney looks forward to working with her to defeat President Obama, turn our economy around and strengthen America's middle class."
The Romney campaign has long maintained an internal policy of speaking only glowingly of Palin in public settings, but their concern remains evident that she is a polarizing figure in an election that will be decided by voters with whom she is not popular.
BuzzFeed.com reported on Saturday that in alluding to the differences between the Ryan pick and McCain's choice of Palin, one senior Romney adviser sarcastically referred in an email to "the number one policy wonk in the country . . . Sarah Palin."
Commenters on the pro-Palin website Conservatives4Palin.com reacted angrily to the news that she would not speak at the convention, and a prominent GOP strategist with close ties to the Tea Party told RCP that he blamed the Romney campaign for not fully appreciating what Palin brings to the table.
"The Romney campaign from day one has missed her draw to the Tea Party," the strategist said. "Even with Paul Ryan, they still miss that she's been there from the beginning."
