The price of crude oil has risen for months and remains near its 2009 peak of about $80 a barrel, yet oil stocks have been so-so performers and their valuations are about half of the level of the broad market, Guinness pointed out.
"There has been a good recovery in the oil price, and there's absolutely no reason to think it's going to collapse back from here," Guinness said. "It's highly likely to average $70 or better for the next two to three years."
The ability of the OPEC cartel to cut production if prices soften should put a floor under crude at about $50, in his view. That, in turn, would support his favored stocks.
"I can see 30 percent up side [in oil stocks] as the market gets more comfortable with my scenario," he said. "That makes them a better bet than the S&P 500."
One wager that he would decline to make is on Exxon Mobil, which trades at a richer valuation than its peers.
"Exxon is a boring, overpriced super-major," Guinness remarked. "As confidence seeps back into the market, the more lowly [valued] companies will come back."