Northern Alliance Strength Questioned

U.S. support for anti-Taliban forces in northern Afghanistan is emerging as an important component of Washington's anti-terrorism campaign.

In recent days, a Northern Alliance attack on the northern stronghold of Mazar-i-Sharif has bogged down. Meanwhile, a planned assault on Kabul failed to materialize. Northern Alliance officials explained that the Kabul offensive had been postponed.

Observers in Russia say the Northern Alliance is militarily inferior to the Taliban forces in personnel numbers, mobilization reserves, and firepower. Experts also believe that the Pushtun-dominated Taliban's morale is higher than that of Northern Alliance troops, who are primarily Tajiks and Uzbeks.

Washington is ready to answer the appeal. The New York Times reported October 1 that the United States is embarking on a substantial effort to help all resistance groups operating inside Afghanistan, including the Northern Alliance. The Bush Administration has also pledged $100 million in humanitarian assistance to help cope with already-evident population displacement.

From the Russian point of view, the Northern Alliance is currently not so much an offensive threat as it is a defensive asset. Russian experts say the alliance forms a critical bulwark against the spread of Taliban-inspired instability into the Central Asian republics: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Several Russian officials and experts expressed concern that the Northern Alliance and Central Asian militaries may not be sufficiently prepared to oppose the Taliban. A rapid buildup of Northern Alliance military capabilities is needed to ensure stability in Central Asia, they added.

A high-level Kremlin source, speaking on condition of anonymity, believes that in the short run there is no threat to the stability of any of the Central Asian republics. However, over the long term security conditions could become unstable, the source said, if the orthern Alliance is not brought up to speed militarily.

According to one Russian military advisor, retired Col. Viktor Gartmann, Northern Alliance commanders have no formal military training, as many are former tribal warlords. Only extensive training and the provision of ample firepower - including old Soviet-era T-55 tanks, armored personnel carriers and GRAD rocket launchers - can turn Northern Alliance into a viable offensive military force, said Gartmann, who served as an advisor to the pro-Soviet Afghan armed forces from 1981-1984. Gartmann added that an important ingredient of victory would be reactivating the old Soviet-led tribal networks in Northern Afghanistan.

"I am willing to give up my office job at a tourism college in the Moscow suburb and go advise my Afghan friends again," Gartmann said, adding that that his "friends" hardly speak Russian, let alone English. "All they speak is Dari."

The Kremlin source said the Northern Alliance successfully overcame a major challenge to its cohesiveness created by the September 9 assassination of Ahmad Shah Massoud, the alliance's charismatic military commander. The alliance did not come apart as some had feared. However, the source added, Central Asia's security picture remains unsettled.

Russian observers believe the Taliban will attempt to stir up trouble in Central Asia, potentially including attacks on Russian and Western forces in the region, and the use of mass terrorism. Afghanistan's three northern neighbors - Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan - reportedly have been infiltrated by hundreds of radical Islamic fighters, organized in underground cells or hiding in remote mountainous regions.

According to Russian intelligence experts, more insurgents, including loyalists of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, may try to infiltrate Central Asia in the coming weeks by posing as refugees. Some Taliban leaders have helped stoke concern by vowing to try to "liberate" Bukhara and Samarkand, two centers of Islamic culture located in what is now Uzbekistan.

Central Asian governments have yet to develop a model that allows for freedom of religious worship, while cracking down on Islamic radicals. There is no real political alternativ in the region to counter the propaganda efforts of the Hizb-ut-Tahrir (Army of Liberation), an Islamic party which was started by a Palestinian Arab in Jordan in 1952. The party advocates a non-violent struggle to re-establish a caliphate, or a vast Islamic kingdom, encompassing Central Asia and much of the Middle East.

Another threat to Central Asian stability is connected with possible massive population displacement. According to the UN sources, the Central Asian republics and Iran expect the likely intensification of fighting in northern Afghanistan to produce over 250,000 refugees. That number could easily climb if fighting drags on.

Central Asian countries are destitute and have no infrastructure to accommodate the refugees. Moreover, Tajikistan is stricken by the most severe drought in its history, and according to the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees, up to one third of its population is in danger of malnutrition. The influx of large numbers of refugees could render social conditions in Central Asia explosive.

Material Courtesy Of Eurasianet; written by Ariel Cohen. Cohen is a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation