No Olympic Timeout
Most political observers of all stripes have been saying it since the spring: In this presidential race, the so-called "conventional wisdom" is useless.
Traditional models used to predict elections just don't seem to apply this time. In this period of relative growth and contentment, Al Gore as vice president in the current administration should be the clear front-runner. But he isn't.
And by this time, George W. Bush should have regained the ground he lost during the expected "bounce" in the polls that Gore received after the Democratic National Convention. But he hasn't.
This is a rare neck-and-neck horse race as the two candidates approach the final lap. And thus another traditional tidbit tossed out by the pundits has fallen flat: neither Republican Bush nor Democrat Gore appears to be taking much of a breather during the Olympics.
"The hiatus people expected is not taking place," said Carroll Doherty of the independent Pew Research Center. "You'll see a pretty aggressive contest throughout this period."
Indeed, on the eve of the Sydney games, Bush launched a week-long campaign tour to focus on issues that affect "real people." And this week, Gore called for the release of oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Are voters paying attention? A recent USA Today/CNN/Gallup tracking poll suggests they are. The percentage of voters who said they were paying "a lot" of attention to the campaigns has jumped from 47-percent in July to a current level of 63-percent. By comparison, 59-percent said they intended to watch a lot of the Olympics.
And while the Nielsen ratings don't show the complete picture since they don't account for viewers tuning in to alternatives such as cable, the cumulative TV ratings so far put the Sydney Olympics on course to be the lowest-rated Summer Games ever.
Obviously, much of the decline in viewership can be blamed on the 15-hour time difference between Sydney and the East Coast. But the unprecedented late scheduling of the Summer Games - which usually occur before Labor Day - and the close nature of this presidential race have kept voter interest higher, too, leaving the candidates little incentive to break stride.
"You have a unique situation this year," said Allan Lichtman, a presidential scholar at American University. "The candidates can not possibly wind down."
Both campaigns agree that with seven weeks to go until Election Day, there's not a minute to waste.
"The heat is on, regardless of what is on television," said Ray Sullivan, a Bush spokesperson. "One way we are trying to break through … is by going on television shows that are not traditional news venues."
Barbara O'Connor, who heads the Institute for the Study of Politics and Media at California State University at Sacramento, calls the recent appearances by Bush and Gore on such popular shows as Oprah/I>, Regis, and Late Night with David Letterman "alternative paradigms of campaigning" by the candidates. They are appealing to non-typical voters, who would be more likely get their news from daytime and late-night television which, by the way, does not compete with Olympic coverage.
"I do think the interest level (among this group) is higher," said Connor. But she contends the campaigns are still not scheduling as many events during the period of the Olympic games, partly because they know the media is currently distracted by the events in Sydney, too.
Another reason for the lighter schedules is to give the candidates additional time to prepare for the debates, which all agree will be the final opportunity to sway undecided and swing voters. And some suggest that Governor Bush is using this period to test out issues that might gain him an advantage in the debates.
Lichtman thinks that is "unquestionably true ... The onus is on George Bush to takes risks right now, not Al Gore," he said.
The scholar observes that despite the Olympics, the game plan for presidential candidates has changed over the past decade. Lichtman notes Michael Dukakis was criticized for his perceived failure to campaign hard enough in 1988 - and that Bill Clinton set a new standard for running a highly energized, non-stop campaign.
"The new conventional wisdom," he said, "is to campaign as hard as you can, as often as you can, and never let up."
Sounds like something you would hear about an athlete going for the gold in Sydney.