Kerry's Not-So-Certain Weekend

By David Paul Kuhn,
CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

Referring to President George W. Bush, of course, Kerry zinged his newest zinger, holding the mic in his left hand and repeatedly pointing with his right. Blue-shirted, sporting a red tie, this newly strutting Kerry spoke as the presumptive Democratic nominee.

And by all expectations, he'll wake up Monday morning even stronger and more confident than he is at the close of this week.

This weekend, three contests will take place, the largest in the land of Motown. In polls, Kerry towers over all in Michigan, with more than 50 percent of likely voters backing him. His all-but-certain win of the state's 128 delegates has kept the other top-tier Democrats out.

That is where the political prognostication ends. Unlike Michigan, Maine and Washington State have no polling, the lifeblood of pundits.

"There is really no way to predict it," said Anthony Corrado, a political science professor at Maine's Colby College and a governance fellow at the Brookings Institution. "Maine is Kerry and Dean. I don't think you will see great support for the other candidates."

Sunday's Maine caucus carries the least delegates this weekend, 24. Yet it is important for the same reason as Washington state and its 76 delegates. Both are unknowns and both have the potential to bring former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean some delegates, or even a sorely needed surprise victory.

"My own expectation is that Dean will come in first, Kerry will be next and Kucinich will be third," said former Washington Democratic Party Executive Director Jeff Smith of his home state.

"There is a long tradition of people in the Northwest being very populist and being highly skeptical of the establishment – and Kerry is an establishment person," said Smith, who admittedly is a Dean supporter.

This year being an "establishment person" may for once be a good thing, most exit polling shows Democrats backing Kerry because he is seen as the most qualified candidate to take on President Bush. But both Washington State and Maine are culturally to the left of left Democrats, which could have boded well for Dennis Kucinich (yes, Kucinich) and Dean, contrary to his governance history.

But then came Iowa and New Hampshire and this past Tuesday's seven contests. Kerry has won seven of nine so far.

"Early on, Washingtonians went to Dean, but I think they have shifted significantly in the last three weeks given what happened in New Hampshire and Iowa; the tide turned that night to Kerry," argued political consultant Frank Greer, who is not affiliated with any candidate but whose firm assists the Kerry campaign.

Maine is much the same, Corrado said. But he also will not count Dean out because of the "core of liberal Democrats that will help Dean keep competitive."

Michigan, however, is anything but competitive because of its large population and because its contest falls only days after Tuesday night's strong showing by Kerry. The Massachusetts senator was polling so well there that the other candidates, who are all struggling financially, directed their resources elsewhere.

Former Gen. Wesley Clark and Sen. John Edwards are focusing on Tuesday's primaries in Tennessee (where it is a dead heat in the polls) and Virginia, where Kerry is also competitive.

Dean campaigned hard in Washington state but has now staked his candidacy in the land of milk, farms, industry and beer. In an e-mail to supporters this week, he wrote, "The entire race has come down to this: we must win Wisconsin."

Progressive by nature, Wisconsin and Washington state gave Green Party candidate Ralph Nader 4 percent of the vote in 2000; he won 6 percent in Maine. No small feat for a third-party candidate in a general election.

"The Ralph Nader people fall into Kucinich supporters," Smith predicts.

But even if Kucinich gets a few delegates and Dean wins a state this weekend, Kerry's lead still looks insurmountable. With a massive take of delegates in Michigan expected, and a likely strong showing in Virginia, Kerry's front-runner status will not fade easily. And Dean's right: the Feb. 17 Wisconsin primary is his last chance to stop Kerry.

But it's unlikely, according to Ed Sarpolus, Michigan's nonpartisan guru pollster. He expects Kerry to win both states.

"The cultures of Michigan and Wisconsin are working-class states," he said. "They are still part of the black and blue league for football. We all get out in the snow, we are all on the great lakes."

Yet one fact gives Dean hope in Michigan: more than 42,000 voters have already made their choices by mail or Internet, according to the state's Democratic Party. When Michigan voters began participating, it was the New Year and Dean dominated. Without a vote cast, he was being crowned the Democratic nominee and was about to appear on the covers of Time and Newsweek.

But one month and millions of dollars later, Dean knows best of all that in this campaign there are no sure things.