JWT Trendspotter Mack Makes Sure She's Never Wrong ... Most of the Time
JWT's director of trendspotting Ann Mack has spent much of December giving interviews to the media. Trendspotting is one of those dubious add-on services that agencies like to sell to clients because it's cheap to produce and non-measurable. But the real problem with trendspotting is that it's a bit like being a TV psychic: merely asking the right questions and stating the obvious does not mean that you have special powers; and half the time the "predictions" being sold aren't even predictions.
Let's look at Mack's methodology:
I'm constantly out in the field, crisscrossing the globe, observing, listening and talking to influencers and experts of every stripe from those in publishing, music and politics to technology, beauty and art.Nice work if you can get it, but note the lack of plumbers, truckers, waitresses, insurance workers, accountants, and other ordinary folk in her sample set. These are predictions that will sound lovely to university educated clients, but will they wash with the masses?
A large portion of Mack's trends are merely statements of the obvious:
With the economy getting weaker, there will be more people with time on their hands looking for low- to no-cost media to keep them informed--or take their minds off things. In home, television will be getting a boost as analog broadcasts are phased out and countries shift to digital broadcasting. On the other hand, it's likely to be a tough year for media such as newspapers and magazines, especially at a time when much of their content or similar content can be found for free online.Well, duh! But there's more:
Layoffs will cause people to ponder whether they'd even want a job that's like the one they were forced to leave...
As the availability of wireless broadband expands and the cost of advanced mobile phones drops, the mobile device will become the preferred hub for digital activity.These are examples of how trendspotters simply take something that is already going on (unemployment, advanced mobile phones), assume correctly that it will continue to happen, and then name it as a trend they're predicting. It's really not that difficult. Let's try it: "I predict that teenagers will listen to new forms of music, much of which will offend or alarm their parents."
The great thing about "predicting" is that if you keep it common-sensical enough, you can never get it wrong. Occasionally, however, Mack does stick her neck out and come up with something genuinely interesting:
The use of e-mail will decline. E-mail is "an increasingly outdated medium," says Ann Mack, ... The reasons are twofold. Younger people prefer to communicate via text messages and social networks, and people of all ages are fed up with overflowing in-boxes.Saying Email will decline is similar to suggesting that sending a package via Fedex has "declined" since the invention of email -- it has, but the idea that the ability to send an express package is now unimportant is just silly. There will always be a need for it. Particularly in business -- email provides a formal, timestamped, verifiable, instant record of transactions. It's legally recognized as binding. Lawyers will not be switching to IM any time soon.
The bottom line here is that Mack is essentially stating the obvious: Five years ago we had email inboxes. Now we have Facebook accounts, Twitter, IM and texting -- and email's share of time is necessarily in decline. This isn't a prediction, it's simple math.
There are some things that Mack will be flat wrong about, however. Here's three:
Sous Vide at Home: High-end restaurants have been using sous vide, a technique in which food is vacuum-packed and cooked at precise temperatures, for several years. Now this exacting method, which requires less fat yet results in juicy, intensely flavorful dishes, is trickling down to the home chef. Per Se chef Thomas Keller's latest cookbook, "Under Pressure," focuses on sous vide; upscale cookware chain Sur La Table recently started offering sous vide appliances; and ambitious home cooks are trading tips online.The idea that, in a recession, people will be influenced by an "exacting" homecooking method pioneered by the most expensive restaurant in New York is totally ridiculous. But some people will do this -- Mack has tried it, doubtless -- and thus the trend comes "true."
The Pisco Sour: The latest Latin drink is the pisco sour, Peru's national cocktail. Traditionally made with Pisco (a type of Peruvian brandy), lemon juice, egg whites, simple syrup and bitters, the Pisco sour is steadily migrating from Peruvian restaurants to the mainstream.
Here's how to make a Pisco Sour at home: 1 1/2 ounce Pisco 1/2 ounce fresh lemon juice 1/2 ounce simple syrup 1 whole egg whiteI predict that the pisco sour will not become a major trend in 2009 because of the difficulty and expense of its ingredients. Do you really want to crack an egg, separate the yolk, and use only the white before mixing your drink? Are you going to keep "simple syrup" around the whole time? Of course not.
On the travel front, Mack predicts:
unconventional lodging, like home swaps or staying in a monastery; pod hotels ...I predict that staying in a monastery will not become a big trend in 2009, because there just aren't that many monasteries around.
Bottom line: I predict trendspotting will continue in 2009 as long as clients keep paying for them...
Image by Flickr user griraffes, CC