July US Stock Market Performance
In the face of the US debt default, the US stock market declined again in July, making it the third month in a row of declines. The 2.2 percent loss of the US stock market as measured by the total return of the Wilshire 5000 came in the last week, losing 4.1 percent, while Congress continued its partisan approach. Stocks lost ground each day last week as the clock ticked toward default.
Though this was the third straight month of stock market losses, each month's loss was relatively small. The total three month loss was 5.1 percent. According to Wilshire Associates, the last three month losing streak occurred from September to November of 2008, as markets plummeted.
My thoughts on the future
If I had been asked a year ago what I thought would be the outcome of Congress playing Russian Roulette with our sacred credit rating, I would have guessed that the market losses would be more along the lines of 20 percent. That's why I don't act on my guesses, as they would surely lead me to do the wrong things.
The truth is that the US stock market is only 6.8 percent from its October 9, 2007 all-time high, and a full 118.2 percent above the March 9, 2009 market bottom. And while I don't know how the market will perform going forward, I am encouraged by a Wall Street Journal headline on July 30 reading "For Investors, Cash is King." It observed that the movement of money was "akin to that during the peak of the 2008 financial crisis." Of course, King Cash missed out on the great recovery then.
Investing is a long-term proposition. I can only hope that I'm not still blogging about the impact of the US default by the middle of the week.
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