It's looking like a happy holiday shopping season for retailers
While the Obama Administration is already looking back at 2014 as a milestone year for the U.S. economy, retail industry groups are closely monitoring the current holiday shopping season for a sense of consumer trends, confidence and expectations as it monitors the economic recovery.
There have been some surprises. According to the research firm IHS Global Insight, the Black Friday period right after Thanksgiving, previously considered a crucial part of the holiday shopping season for retailers, was not as "well received" in 2014 as it has been in previous years. And that change, it says, was mostly due to shoppers taking advantage of earlier sales -- or avoiding brick-and-mortar shops entirely, by making their holiday gift purchases online.
IHS notes the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) weekly measure for chain-store sales fell nearly two percent, week-over-week, for the week ending Nov. 29 -- the so-called Black Friday week -- and again for the following week.
Retail sales also rose 0.7 percent for all of last month, after relatively "robust" figures in October and a weak September.
IHS defines holiday retail sales as not seasonally-adjusted for November, plus December's total retail sales and excluding autos, gasoline and food services. With all that in mind, the group is forecasting 2014's holiday retail sales to rise 4.2 percent, compared to last year.
It pointed to tumbling gas prices, improving employment figures, better consumer confidence and heavy price discounting by retailers as creating a "significantly brighter" holiday shopping season this year, compared to 2013 and 2012.
The group is also projecting online holiday retail sales to jump 9.6 percent, compared to last year's 8.0 percent increase. IHS says online holiday retail sales are expected to reach around $85.5 billion once we reach New Year's, compared to $78 billion in 2013.
And as for online vs. mortar-and-brick sales, the group is expecting online holiday sales to continue their upward momentum, accounting for more than 14 percent of total holiday retail sales this year.
"The holiday clicks," it concludes, "are outpacing the holiday bricks."