Is Edwards Ready For Prime Time?
By David Paul Kuhn
CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer
John Edwards has gone prime time. South Carolina was his backyard, his one victory, but now he must win in New York or California, no easy task.
It's put up or shut up.
The handsome, genteel southerner, complete with charming twang, will only be treated with media kid gloves for two more weeks, then the race comes down to math. March 2 is Judgment Day, sounds trite, but it's true nonetheless.
"Edwards has got to win California or New York," said Democratic pollster Mark Penn. "Once Edwards begins to win some states, maybe the Super Delegates could then go either way."
Super Delegates are elected officials and party leaders, past or present, who make up one-sixth of the total Democratic delegate count. This includes the entire Democratic National Committee, all Democratic members of Congress, governors and other "distinguished Party leaders," like Presidents Carter and Clinton.
Kerry has the vast majority of Super Delegates behind his candidacy, a big reason why the coastal states are do-or-die for Edwards. Kerry has also won 15 of 17 contests so far. The Massachusetts senator's lead is real, not the stuff of newspapers and television.
If Edwards is running for more than vice president he must win one of the two most populous American states.
"It is conceivable you have an open convention if Edwards is able to break through in New York and California," said Penn, who served as a pollster for Sen. Joe Lieberman and then-President Bill Clinton.
Edwards' task is formidable. A new Marist College poll puts Kerry ahead of Edwards in New York by the daunting margin of 66-14 percent. The terrain is somewhat friendlier in California, a state capable of springing unpleasant surprises on front-runners.
Nevertheless, a Public Policy Institute of California poll taken before the Wisconsin primary put Edwards squarely behind the electoral eight ball in the Golden State as well. That survey showed Kerry the favorite of 55 percent of California Democrats. Edwards could only manage 10 percent.
Super Tuesday counts for the first time in some time, usually falling too late in the primary process to shake up the race. This year there are primary contests in 10 states, with 1,151 delegates up for grabs. That's more delegates than have been won so far in the race.
This means: forget the expectations game. This is no longer a story of momentum. It's a nuts and bolts race. Edwards needs to win based upon the numbers. Not the pundits. Not the media. Not this writer.
The trial lawyer must win 60 percent of the remaining contests to beat Kerry. California and New York total 606 delegates, more than half of Super Tuesday's prize, the largest of the primary season.
Other states contested on March 2 include delegate-rich Ohio (where Kerry began his Super Tuesday campaign), Georgia, and five New England states.
"Edwards needs to do more than win Georgia in order to demonstrate that he has a shot at the nomination, but the question is, Does he have a the resources to run in a national campaign?" said Ed Reilly, who served as Dick Gephardt's pollster during the Missouri congressman's run for the presidency.
"California is not an easy state to traverse, and it is a state that is very difficult to penetrate without a lot of media," Reilly added. "Edwards is getting covered by the press but he still needs advertising."
Edwards knows he needs New York or California. His first campaign stop after his strong second in the Wisconsin's primary was here in the Empire State.
Mobbed by media as he navigated New York, the North Carolina senator has taken his fight to Yankee turf for five days, a quarter of his time remaining.
On Thursday he was in Harlem, USA. On Friday it was Rochester, hard hit by job losses. After Rochester, he went to Savannah for a little southern comfort in the one state he is expected to take on March 2 - Georgia.
"Edwards is going to have a great opportunity to cast himself in contrast to John Kerry, he's the new fresh face and he is demonstrating movement in his candidacy." Reilly said. "But Kerry has an advantage, Democrats are very focused on choosing a candidate that will take his challenge to George Bush, and I think Kerry through his victories is hard to beat.
"Kerry has a very compelling story, not only his war hero status, but there is a toughness message that comes through in his public persona that begins with him as a war hero and then as a prosecutor and then in this investigative role as a senator," Reilly continued. "Democrats see a guy who can stand up to Republicans."
Only Democrats can vote in the New York, and Kerry has consistently pummeled Edwards in closed primary contests like the Empire State's.
California has a primary in which independent voters as well as Democrats may participate. This favors Edwards. He has won a higher percentage of non-Democrats in states like Wisconsin, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
"It's really simple, Edwards has to win one of the big two and I don't see how he gets the delegates done without doing that," Reilly said. "If Kerry wins the big two and then the New England states, the mathematics of John Edwards catching up are almost impossible."