Indiana Senate to vote Thursday on 9-0 Republican congressional map, but its passage is uncertain

Indiana's state Senate will decide on Thursday whether or not they'll pass a new congressional map that will make all nine of the state's U.S. House districts lean toward Republicans. 

This possibility of adding two GOP-friendly seats in Indiana has been a political priority of the Trump administration, as Democrat-run and Republican-run states have been trading blows in a nationwide redistricting arms race ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

But the contentious debate also spawned bomb threats and swatting incidents against Indiana lawmakers, as enough Indiana Republican state lawmakers are opposed to a new map to put its passage in jeopardy. 

Republicans already represent seven of Indiana's nine Congressional districts, while Democrats represent two districts, one near southwest Chicago and one that encompasses Indianapolis. The proposed map drastically breaks apart the Indianapolis-based district of Democratic Rep. André Carson to dilute the city's Democratic-leaning electorate. 

The map passed in the Indiana state House with a 57-41 vote earlier this month, but Indiana Senate president Rodric Bray has previously insisted the votes needed to pass the map are not there. 

At least 25 of the state's 50 senators would have to vote yes for the map to pass, with Republican Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith being the tiebreaker vote. There are 40 Republican senators in the chamber, while  at least 12 state senators have come out publicly against the map with several keeping their stance private, according to the IndyStar. 

"It's a toss up," said GOP operative Marty Obst, chair of the "Fair Maps Indiana" nonprofit pushing for a middecade redraw. He said there's about ten state Republican senators who are still undecided, in part because they want to hear more from constituents and during this week's debate on the senate floor. 

"We'll obviously need a few of those to get to 25," he said. "It should be an interesting day on Thursday. It's truly up in the air." 

Lawmakers against the map have shared doubts that Republicans can even win all nine seats in the new proposed map, have cited pushback from constituents about a new map, and cited the unusual nature of redrawing Congressional lines in the middle of the decade, not after the 2020 Census like Indiana and the rest of the country did in 2021. 

"What's taking people by surprise is the novelty of politicians who prioritize fidelity to principle, over flirtations with politics. It's so old it's new again," said Indiana GOP operative Pete Seat. 

State Republicans in favor of the map have argued Indiana shouldn't be on the sidelines on gerrymandering, and pointed to states gerrymandered by Democrats such as California or nearby Illinois. 

"We've consistently seen the Democrats use that process to increase and rule their influence in Washington D.C .... what the administration is challenging Republicans with is that we have to push back," state Republican Sen. Andy Zay told CBS affiliate WANE in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

Three Republican senators on the Indiana Senate elections committee who voted to advance the map on Monday said they reserve the right to still vote no on Thursday. 

Throughout the year, the White House has flexed its political muscle to push for redistricting in Indiana. 

Vice President JD Vance has met with Indiana GOP lawmakers several times this year in Indianapolis and in Washington D.C. to push for a mid-decade redraw. President Trump met with Indiana House and Senate leaders in the Oval Office in August and has called state lawmakers about redistricting.

"I will be strongly endorsing against any State Senator or House member from the Great State of Indiana that votes against the Republican Party, and our Nation, by not allowing for Redistricting," Trump wrote in a November Truth Social post.

That pressure campaign from outside actors was already in effect going into the votes. Obst's nonprofit, Indiana Fair Maps, has already spent over $250,000 on advertisements encouraging lawmakers to pass the map. On Monday, a super PAC affiliated with his nonprofit announced they will spend up to seven-figures in the 2026 primary elections to support members in favor of redistricting, as well as recruit and financially back challengers against lawmakers who are against it. Obst says this effort will happen regardless of whether or not the map passes. 

Turning Point USA, the conservative organization founded by the late Charlie Kirk, held a rally in Indiana's statehouse earlier this month where Indiana Gov. Mike Braun spoke in favor of the new map. Several Turning Point USA officials, including Trump adviser Alex Bruesewitz, have also been calling out lawmakers against redistricting in the last two months on social media. 

But as more attention has been paid to redistricting in Indiana, several state Republican lawmakers as well as Braun, have gotten bomb threats and swatting incidents. Republican state Sen. Jean Leising, who is against a new Congressional map in Indiana, was the target of a pipe bomb threat. She called it a "result of the D.C. political pundits for redistricting."

"I fear for this institution. I fear for the state of Indiana, I fear for all states if we allow intimidation and threats to be the norm," said Republican state Sen. Greg Walker, the only member of the state Senate's election committee who voted against moving the new map forward. 

Obst called the threats "uncalled for" and that he doesn't support any of the threats to lawmakers. "I've been in Indiana politics for 20 years... we're trying to have a debate and get redistricting done. But this is uncalled for," he said. 

Indiana's middecade redistricting push comes after other efforts have taken place nationwide, starting this summer in Texas, where Republicans in the state legislature redrew their congressional map at the request of Mr. Trump to net up to five seats for their party. California's Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom then spearheaded a ballot measure that passed with more than 60% of the vote to redraw their map to gain up to five seats for Democrats. Missouri's legislature then redrew their map to try to shift one more seat toward Republicans, and North Carolina undertook a similar effort to edge out a Democrat in its 1st Congressional District. Other Democrat-run states like Maryland and Illinois are also considering a redraw to add more Democratic seats.