In Tamil Tiger Surrender, A Lesson – And A Terror Vacuum?
CBS News national security consultant Juan Zarate weighs in on the reported death of Velupillai Prabhakaran, leader of the Sri Lankan rebel group the Tamil Tigers and the group's announcement that they will lay down their arms.
While it is too soon to tell whether the Tamil desire for greater representation and autonomy will take on a new violent form in Sri Lanka at some point, the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is hugely significant in ending one of the most violent and longstanding terrorist/insurgency movements in the world.
There are two additional strategic points for folks to keep in mind regarding the rebel group's demise.
First, the group's defeat is significant because of the ability of the Sri Lankan government and military to use force to end this particular conflict. The assumption for years was that only a negotiated settlement – led by the Norwegians on behalf of the international community – could resolve the conflict.
That was not the case.
This, then, has an important demonstration effect for those countries dealing with similar problems – Colombia with FARC, the Philippines with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Thailand with Muslim discontent in its south, Afghanistan and Pakistan with the Taliban. This may not be the right lesson to draw in all contexts, but it's a lesson nonetheless that governments and insurgent/terrorist groups will draw upon.
Second, the LTTE was always the trailblazer for terrorist organization, both in technique and doctrine. They innovated the suicide bombing, developed air and sea forces and capabilities, and engaged in strategic sabotage. The terrorist world has lost its innovative Petri dish, with this mantle likely now falling to Hezbollah.