Honey, I Shrunk the Newspaper

Well, the first estimates are coming in on last year's newspaper advertising disaster, and try as I might, there is simply no silver lining. So let's cut to the chase.

According to eMarketer, newspaper ad revenue declined by 16.4 percent in 2008, the worst year since records have been kept. But that is not really the bad news. Another steep decline is forecast for this year, with smaller losses over the next few years, until last year's total of $37.9 billion will have shrunk by more than a quarter to a total ad spend of only $28.4 billion in 2012.

"Newspaper revenues are falling more than in any other medium," says Carol Krol, author of the eMarketing report, though she notes that things are tough for all types of media companies now.

As we've noted a number of times recently, during the past six months the outlook for online ad revenue has worsened, which of course could not be happening at a worse time for this industry. According to the report, online newspaper advertising declined last year by 0.4 percent and will nosedive another 4.7 percent this year to settle back at about $3 billion -- nowhere near enough to make up for the losses on the print side of the house.

Given the grim nature of the news she was delivering, I did, however, appreciate Carol Krol's understated conclusion for newspaper execs: "New business models beyond advertising may be required."