GOP, Dems plot shutdown aftermath moves

The Democrats' script for how the shutdown aftermath will play out runs along these lines: When the clock struck midnight Monday, the hot potato bill to fund the government was in House Republicans' lap; it may take time, but public outrage and intra-party tension will build, forcing them back to their chamber with furrowed brows and sweaty palms to undo the predicament they're in.

But that scenario appears to be slower in developing, as House conservatives continue to fight on the health care law and Speaker John Boehner focuses on keeping his members in harmony. Still, party leaders know the optics aren't good for them, and they sought to change the picture Tuesday when they returned to the Capitol. While the news streamed images of veterans barred from visiting Washington's World War II Memorial (GOP lawmakers helped some of them push aside barricades later) and tourists denied access to the Statue of Liberty, House Republicans staged a photo op of their own: a half-dozen conferees sitting at a boardroom table across from empty chairs.

"The way to resolve our differences is to sit down and talk, and as you can see, there's no one here on the other side of the table," said Majority Leader Eric Cantor, seated next to Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan.

Tuesday evening, Republicansbrought to the floor a trio of bills to provide appropriations for select entities: national parks, veterans' services, and the District of Columbia. The mini-measures, an idea proposed last week by Sen. Ted Cruz, required a two-thirds majority vote, designed to corner Democrats with the kind of bill President Obama signed Monday, which provided funds for the military in the event of a shutdown. There were Democratic defections -- more than 30 voted for the veterans' measure -- but Nancy Pelosi urged her caucus to oppose the GOP plan, which she characterized as "throwing us crumbs while they take the pie someplace else."

In Dikembe Mutombo fashion, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid swatted away the measures, saying that Republicans couldn't simply pick and chose which programs they would fund while leaving others to falter. "Sen. Ted Cruz is now going to pick his favorite federal agencies to reopen? Come on," said Democratic Senate Whip Dick Durbin. The president threatened to veto the bills, and pushed Congress to send him the "clean" funding measure the Senate passed at sequester levels.

Recent polling has shown the American public is likely to blame Republicans more than Obama for the shutdown, but Democrats risk overplaying their hand.

Boehner dismissed the veto threat as hypocritical. "The President can't continue to complain about the impact of the government shutdown on veterans, visitors at National Parks, and D.C. while vetoing bills to help them," said his spokesman, Michael Steel.

Polling can change, of course, and it's difficult to predict the political fallout, especially if the shutdown doesn't end quickly. Democrats have been less than polite in their messaging -- using loaded descriptions of suicide bombers and arsonists to describe Republicans' push for a budget measure that defunds Obamacare.

But Democrats are also counting on the divisions within the Republican Party that have been heightened since the shutdown hit. New York Rep. Peter King failed to garner enough support from moderate Republicans to force Boehner to bring a clean funding bill to the floor -- showing just how difficult mounting a moderate opposition is these days. Nonetheless, King's efforts appeared to gain more backing on Tuesday, with about a dozen GOP members in the fold.

The party "fought the good fight. The fight continues but is not advanced by a government shutdown that damages our economy and harms our military," said Republican Scott Rigell, noting constituents in his Norfolk district who had already been furloughed by sequester cuts. "The time has come to pass a clean CR to reopen the government."

California Rep. Devin Nunes, telling reporters that his conference had exhausted it options, blamed his conservative colleagues for the party's predicament. "We're letting, these guys -- this lemming crew -- play out their hand. Now, they're playing with no cards in their hand but they don't know it yet," the six-term GOP congressman said.

Still, that small but influential group of conservatives continues to press for a delay of the Affordable Care Act, part of which went into effect Tuesday despite the shutdown because some funds had been appropriated in previous bills. The mere mention of a clean continuing resolution has been nonexistent in conference gatherings this week.

Republicans huddled for another meeting in the basement of the Capitol Tuesday afternoon to plot their next steps, and came away with the plan to pass the three small bills. Meanwhile, they are pushing Democrats to go to conference on a short-term measure that also delays the Obamacare individual mandate by a year and eliminates health care subsides for members of Congress.

Democrats have tried to capitalize on comments from Republican senators such as John McCain, who has said the fight over Obamacare -- as it relates to the funding bill -- is futile, and others who say they simply want to move on and have these battles play out in next year's elections.

Democrats say they welcome the midterm fight, and think Republicans' low approval ratings will be difficult to reverse. "We have had months and months of voters' views of the [GOP] that have kind of hardened," one Democratic strategist and former congressional aide told RCP. "It's at the point where it's highly unlikely that the public, in opinion polls, is going to accept that now Republicans want to find common ground."

Democrats argue that they have already conceded on lower spending levels in the budget and have agreed to examine Obamacare fixes outside of a short-term funding bill. "Most people believe it's the Republican Party being stubborn," the strategist insisted.

But the standoff figures to go on longer than might have been expected, and Democrats may have underestimated Boehner's approach. With portions of the government already shut down, the urgency to beat the clock is diminished. Having already touched the stove, lawmakers are waiting to see if and how badly they've been burned. Unlike the shutdowns in the 1990s, many Republicans are insulated by their red-state districts and believe constituents are on their side, even if nationally Republicans get the lion's share of blame. Senators who represent entire states, however, don't necessarily have that luxury.

"I understand why many of them are doing what they're doing," Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch said of his House counterparts. The six-term Utah lawmaker told RCP he's not sure there will be the predicted public backlash: "We're in a different world than we were in '95 and '96. We didn't have the social media we have today, we didn't have the Internet as robust as it today, we didn't have a lot of the different ways of getting the message out. But I think a lot of people are starting to say, 'Why don't they just talk to each other?'"

What is problematic for the Democrats' strategy is they might not get concessions as soon as they hoped -- if at all. Several GOP lawmakers believe implementing Obamacare is far worse than any backlash from a shutdown and are standing their ground. Complicating Democrats' concerns is that debt ceiling deadline is just two weeks away, and lawmakers expect budget negotiations to be folded into that debate as well -- except in that case the nation's credit rating will be at stake.

"I absolutely believe that Obamacare fully implemented ... is exponentially worse for America than a few days of government shutdown. I don't think there is any comparison," Rep. Trent Franks of Arizona told RCP.

"I have 5-year-old twins and I would far rather have them look back and say, 'You know, Dad was there when they shut down the government for a few days because he was trying to give us a better future and not be hobbled by the dark hole of socialized medicine.' "

Tennessee Rep. Marcia Blackburn asserted there's a silver lining in the shutdown. "I think you may see a partial shutdown for several days," she said Tuesday on Fox News, "but people are probably going to realize they can live with a lot less government than what they thought they needed."

While national Democrats raked in record amounts of cash through fundraising efforts pegged to the shutdown, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Greg Walden insisted the government closings won't be a significant issue in the 2014 elections. "I think, in the end, government will get back up and get back to work. We'll resolve the funding issues, but Obamacare will continue," he said. "So if you're asking me will this have an impact on 2014, the answer is, I think Obamacare will, and I think it will begin to play out more and more and I think that will be a more important issue than whatever happened in September or October of 2013."

Walden's Democratic counterpart, Steve Israel, said moments like these benefit his party's recruiting efforts. "Could you quote me as laughing?" the New York congressman told RCP when asked about Walden's view. "If they really believe you can shut down the government, hurt the middle class, throw people out of jobs and they're going to forget, they're badly miscalculating."

RealClearPolitics' Adam O'Neal contributed to this report.