G-8 Is Expected To Be Glacial On Climate Change

In terms of substantive progress on battling climate change, the Group of Eight summit may be over before it begins. Dignitaries meeting in Heiligendamm, Germany, will work to hash out their differences on what may be the most inconvenient quandary faced by the world's great powers -- the need to slash greenhouse gas emissions without compromising economic growth.

European nations are eager to push for a new, more ambitious, successor to the terminally crippled Kyoto Protocol, but recent statements by President Bush, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel give little hope for a breakthrough, even as a series of scientific reports released by the United Nations this year indicate that time for action is running out.

Last week, Bush revealed his own global climate change plan, suggesting that a small group of major emitters meet outside the bureaucratic auspices of the United Nations to set nonbinding greenhouse gas targets within 18 months. Each country would decide for itself how far it would go. The proposal reflects his domestic policy of voluntary cuts over mandatory reduction schemes, such as a cap-and-trade system now being debated in Congress.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called it "a positive statement," congratulating Bush for realizing "the urgency and importance of climate change." But Bush's proposal undercuts all of Merkel's priorities for the summit: to get leaders to agree to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, to slash emissions 50 percent below 1990 levels by 2050, and to set up a worldwide cap-and-trade program. Merkel, at present the chair of the G-8, said anything else would be unacceptable. She also demanded that all work be done within the United Nations, calling the idea "nonnegotiable."

At home, Democrats and environmentalists are rooting for Merkel and her prime ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is viewed as a possible bridge to Bush. Rep. Henry Waxman, chair of the powerful Oversight and Government Reform Committee and author of a domestic cap-and-trade program, told reporters he was "pleased to learn that Chancellor Merkel and Prime Minister Blair have pushed back." And Phil Clapp, president of the National Environmental Trust, publicly hoped the two "would hold their positions" in this week's negotiations.

Those negotiations will be further complicated by China, which launched its own pre-emptive plan this week. The emerging economic juggernaut repackaged a 2005 strategy to improve energy efficiency by 2010 while engaging in a nationwide reforestation program.

Annie Petsonk, international counsel for Environmental Defense, credited China for being "the first major developing nation to actually put forward a plan." But critics have blasted the Chinese for refusing mandatory limits on greenhouse emissions; at best China's plan will slow the rate of growth. "Our general stance is that China will not commit to any quantified emissions targets, but that does not mean we will not assume responsibilities in responding to climate change," said Ma Kai, head of China's National Development and Reform Commission. China's longstanding position is that it ought not be forced to cut emissions because developed countries are primarily responsible for the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.

Petsonk argues that China's proposal is more than what the United States is doing. "The Chinese have put forward much clearer targets than the Bush administration has," she argues. The China announcement puts the United States in an awkward spot, as Bush has cited China's recalcitrance (along with that of other developing nations) as reasons not to curb U.S. emissions. "I would hope the president would feel some pressure from China's announcement," Waxman said. "Surely, it ought to be a further embarrassment to this administration that China is coming forward with a real proposal."

Observernote, however, that China failed to reach its 4 percent energy reduction goal last year by a wide margin, and it's quite possible that it will fail to meet the its future goals as well. "China has a very long history of setting very ambitious targets that they fail to reach," says Elizabeth Economy, a China expert for the Council on Foreign Relations. Economy believes China's proposal will mean little going into the G-8 talks. "I don't think they're going to have any more credibility, because as far as I can tell there's nothing new here."

By Bret Schulte