Fears of Romney revolt among evangelicals appear overblown

Unenthusiastic about the prospect of Mitt Romney as the Republican presidential nominee, evangelicals and social conservative leaders are gathering in Texas today and tomorrow to see if they might be able to line up behind another candidate for president.

The meeting appears unlikely to yield a consensus candidate, but attendees know that the South Carolina primary on January 21 is likely their last, best chance to coalesce around an alternative to the former Massachusetts governor, who is distrusted by many for his past support of abortion rights and changing stances on a host of other issues.

Evangelicals and social conservatives - not to mention Tea Party activists angry about Romney's past support for an individual health care mandate - have suggested that if Romney is the nominee, it will have a demoralizing effect on the party's base.

"Why on earth give other things [like volunteering time or donations] for someone you think is a bit of sham?" Dick Bott, founder and chairman of Christian Radio's Bott Radio Network, toldCBS News' Caroline Horn Thursday.

But such concerns appear overstated. A Pew Research Center survey in November found that in a general election matchup, white evangelical GOP voters favor Romney over the president by a 91 percent to 6 percent margin. White evangelicals actually favored Romney over Mr. Obama by a wider margin that GOP voters overall.

The survey did show concerns among evangelicals about Romney's Mormon faith, but they are unlikely to have a serious impact in the general election. And any negative impact from less enthusiasm among the base will be blunted by the overwhelming urge that Republicans have to unseat Mr. Obama. The latest CBS News poll found that 86 percent of Republicans disapprove of the president's performance; the poll also showed that 41 percent of Republicans say they are more enthusiasticthan in past elections, compared to 21 percent of Democrats and independents. There's no question that opposition to the president will be enough to motivate many Republicans no matter who ends up as their candidate. 

That also illustrates why social conservatives and Tea Partiers are unlikely to turn to a third party candidate if Romney is the nominee. Bob Vander Plaats, the influential Iowa social conservative whose endorsement helped drive Rick Santorum to a near win in the January 3 caucuses, told CBS News Political Hotsheet he doesn't trust Romney, saying "he has continued to diss our base and to distance himself from our base."

Yet if Romney ends up as the nominee, he said, "There is no way that we will try to promote a third party candidate, because we believe that reelects Barack Obama."

The focus on social conservatives' unhappiness with Romney has been driven in part by both the self-interest of a narrative-hungry media and the self-interest of conservative leaders eager to assert their importance. The frustrations of social conservative leaders may make for a good story, but their kingmaker days are over, according to Robert P. Jones, who heads the Public Religion Research Institute. Jones noted to NPR that the Christian Coalition and Moral Majority no longer exist, and that Focus on the Family has shrunk significantly. 

"[T]hese groups that really were able to translate these decisions made in closed rooms by a group of men deciding who was going to be the next candidate really don't exist in the way they did," he said.