Fear Factor: Chevy Volt's Range Advantage Matters Now, but It Could Fade

Chevrolet is publicly confident about the market prospects of the "range extender" Volt, with a gas engine that generates electricity instead of driving the wheels. The Volt will have the edge on battery electrics, the company says, because when the other EVs are running out of charge at 100 miles it will still have at least 240 miles left. That argument depends on the public developing "range anxiety," which I do indeed believe will be a significant factor in early EV sales. But I also think such anxiety will wear off relatively quickly, diminishing the GM advantage.

Americans worry about running out of electricity in an EV, and Jay Leno made exactly that argument to me in a recent interview. "Electricity will only take you halfway to wherever you want to go," he said. "Electricity has always been the best way to power a car, but unfortunately the battery technology isn't there yet." Leno was an early test pilot for the General Motors EV-1 electric car, and he says, "Whenever I had a longer trip I was sweating bullets."

But Leno, who has a few other cars, may not have driven his EV-1 enough to get fully used to its limited range. Once people spend some face time with their Nissan Leafs, Coda sedans and Wheego Whip Lifes, they may realize that 100 miles serves their daily commutes just fine. After all, most people's drive to work is a roundtrip of 40 miles or less.

Another factor, of course, is that battery car range will increase. JB Straubel, chief technology officer at Tesla, told me if the Model S battery pack was shoveled into the Roadster, it could travel 350 miles on a charge -- the exact same range as the Chevy Volt.

Still, GM believes it has range on its side. And it does, at least for now. The company is missing no chances to remind the public that its car will leave the Leaf, and even the Tesla Roadster, stranded by the side of the road in an endurance contest. Last week, GM announced that it is sending a caravan of Volts across the country (long distance, get it?) on the "Volt Unplugged" tour.

The new plug-in car is, according to Volt product and marketing director Tony DiSalle, "The only electric vehicle able to drive such long distances under a variety of driving conditions and climates without having to stop to recharge." In case you missed the nuance there, DiSalle says on the tour website, "It's the only electric vehicle that could make a long trip like this."

The trip covers 3,400 miles, which just happens to be exactly 10 times the Volt's long-distance range. (GM has lately been claiming the Volt could cover 350 miles, so maybe it should have been a 3,500-mile tour.) The drive starts in Seattle October 9 and ends in Chicago November 18-20.

I think the Volt will do very well, at least initially, but its appeal could wear off if the public decides it's fine with limited range. That was the conclusion of a university study of 150 drivers of BMW's Mini E electric car -- they said that 100 miles turned out to be enough. There's actually been a movement lately to "city" EVs that combine shortened range (60 miles or less) with a smaller battery pack and an equally small price tag. It makes sense as an alternative to more of everything.

Range will probably matter less and less, especially as public charging becomes more widely available. If you can charge up at home, at work, at the local convenience store and even get a quick jolt at the local gas station, chances are you'll stop worrying about running on empty.

There's a rumor out there that the next generation of the Volt will actually be a battery-only car, but GM hotly denies this. It's probably wish fulfillment on the part of the battery advocates who passed it along to me. Although no decision is likely to have been made on the Volt's future yet, GM could go in that direction if that's what the public wants.

Leno told me that many EV conversions, including the Mini E (which lost two seats in the process) are lesser cars than what the builders started with. That's true, but automakers are learning as they go along. The ActiveE, based on the 1-Series and BMW's own creation, will undoubtedly surpass the Mini E in every important way. And it could even be a better car than the 1-Series.

Eighty percent of charging will be done at home, and EVs will probably be fine even without much public charging. That's another lesson we'll probably learn as the cars have been on the road for a while. Officials at Tokyo Electric Power, which is conducting a very significant EV test (including the introduction of 30-minute fast charging) have told me that experienced drivers use the public stations less and less -- they know they'll get home on the charge they have left.

I'm a big fan of the Volt, and think the extra range is a great plus. But in the long run (and it's the long run we're talking about) it just may not matter as much as GM thinks it does now. And at that point, the car's $41,000 price tag could emerge as a sticking point if battery-only cars are leveraging economy of scale and getting cheaper.

Related:

• "Think Small" is a New Rallying Cry for Some EV Makers
• At $41,000, The Chevy Volt Isn't Cheap (But it Could Blaze Trails)