Expectations Battle Fierce In South Carolina

As any political consultant can tell you, presidential campaigns are constantly trying to manage expectations. The reason is that if a candidate is expected to win a state by thirteen percentage points but only win by, say, three, the press coverage that follows can make that win feel more like a loss. On the flip side, a second-place finish can function boost a campaign even more than a win – if the candidate was supposed to finish fifth.

The expectations battle is presently being waged in South Carolina, a state that polls suggest Barack Obama will win easily. Hillary Clinton left the state this week to campaign in some of the states that will be voting on Feb. 5th – a move at least in part seemingly designed to lower expectations for her in South Carolina. But the Obama campaign doesn't want a S.C. win to be discounted, so in an email today, Obama supporter Joe Erwin laid out how "Hillary Clinton going all out to win in South Carolina."

Some of the evidenced offered up by Erwin:

• In the last week, the Clinton campaign nearly doubled their TV buy, expanding from spending about $236,000 on a mostly cable TV buy to more than $414,000 on wall-to-wall broadcast TV in every major market in the state.

• On Wednesday, the Clinton campaign launched a dishonest statewide radio ad falsely attacking Barack Obama. It's the first negative ad aired by any Democratic presidential campaign in South Carolina this year.

• Public polling just a few weeks ago showed Hillary Clinton with a strong lead in South Carolina. (Clinton led Obama 45-31% in AP/Pew Research poll, November 7-25; Led 45-21% in ARG poll November 26-29; and led 42-34% in a CNN poll, December 9-12.) Now that her lead has evaporated, the Clinton campaign claims she can't win here.