Episode 13: "Took You Long Enough"
Analysis of "Survivor: Pearl Islands" Episode 13, by CBS station WBBM in Chicago's "Survivor" columnist Greg Feltes.
Finally!
As Burton and Jon pointed out countless times in this episode, it would have been idiocy for the remaining females to fail to align themselves to take down the men. The only real question is why it took so long. But you can't really quibble with how successful it was. We now are left with one of the most unlikely final four in the history of the game.
Why Burton is gone:
1. He got overconfident. It's easy to feel a false sense of security when you have been in the driver's seat for so long. This overconfidence led him to take Lillian for granted. All he had to do was lie to Lillian and tell her that they were still final two and then deal with that situation when it occurred.
2. He strategized one too many times when turning on Darrah. Did it really matter who went first between Darrah and Sandra? And why discuss such a switch before you know who has immunity? It was a needless move that finally showed Lillian that she couldn't trust Jon and Burton.
3. He selected Jon to go with him after the reward challenge. This ties into overconfidence. This was really stupid and perhaps the only mistake Burton has made since he came back into the game. If he had left Jon behind, he could have continuously worked on one of the girls for a full night while Jon monitored the other two. Instead, their dual absence allowed the girls to make a move with no interference.
Thoughts on The Finale:
Jon's Chances: Thankfully, there is no way Jon wins this. I see no chance of him winning two immunity challenges in a row to get to the final two. I also don't see Lillian, Darrah and Sandra allowing him to stick around after all that female empowerment bonding. His one hope is to convince these three that there is no better final two opponent than him. However, he doesn't have any shot of winning, even if he gets to the final two. There are not four Jon supporters on that jury. In fact, he might only have one (Burton).
Lillian's Chances: I don't agree with all the players that Lillian is a guaranteed winner if she makes it to the final two. Don't underestimate the anti-outcast sentiment. Plus, the fact remains that Lillian doesn't really have any friends or guaranteed supporters on the jury the way Darrah and Sandra do. She also likely has to win the last immunity challenge because neither Sandra nor Darrah want her as competition.
Sandra's Chances: Sandra has competed the worst at challenges of the final four and she might need to win the last one to definitely make the final two. She does have some allies in the jury, but she also has offended a lot of people with her confrontational behavior.
Darrah's Chances: She has played a really quiet, inoffensive game and really hasn't lied to or angered anyone. Darrah has also shown herself to be adept st winning challenges and can make that argument to the jury.
Two keys to projecting voting:
1. It's important to note that Christa/Rupert/Sandra and Tijuana/Ryan/Darrah are definite voting blocks.
2. Its almost a given that the winner of the last immunity challenge will not receive the vote of the person he or she voted out, which can be huge. For example, if Lillian won the last challenge and chose to keep Darrah, she would automatically lose the votes of Christa, Rupert and Sandra.
Final Two Vote Projections:
(Jon not included since he loses six-to-one in every scenario.)
Darrah-Sandra
For Darrah: Ryan and Tijuana.
For Sandra: Rupert and Christa
Undecided: Jon and Burton. Lillian. (She'll likely go against whoever didn't pick her to take to the final two.)
Darrah-Lillian
For Darrah: Ryan and Tijuana.
For Lillian: Rupert, Christa and Sandra.
Undecided: Jon and Burton.
Sandra-Lillian
For Sandra: Christa and Rupert.
For Lillian:
Undecided: Darrah/Ryan/Tijuana will likely go against whoever won the last immunity challenge and voted Darrah out. Jon and Burton.
Updated Final Two Prediction: Darrah defeats Lillian in a minor upset, thanks to Lillian's outcast status and growing respect for Darrah's recent immunity challenge dominance.
By Greg Feltes