Election Forecast: Tidal Wave Coming

Veteran producer Brian Healy, in Washington, has covered a lot of election nights for CBS News -- 34 years of them, in fact -- and he'll be working again this year. He just sent us the following report, with one analyst's prediction for 2006. -- Ed.

We just had a briefing in the DC Bureau from political analyst Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, and the analyst at the House desk for CBS News on Election Night.

He sees a major tidal wave against the Republicans in this year's election--with Democrats taking control of the House and competing for control of the Senate.

He sees this election dominated by "a desire for change." That stems from anger over the Republican administration's handling of the Iraq War, disappointment with the Republican- controlled Congress (made worse by the Foley affair ) and "two straight years of bad news." That bad news includes high gas prices, the Administration's handling of Katrina, battles over the administration wanting to increase warrantless surveillance of Americans, "Scooter" Libby, and a wage squeeze in the country.

This is a "mood election," he said. "And the mood is for change."

In his most recent newsletter, Rothenberg wrote that he saw the Democrats gaining "18-25 seats, though we think that a significantly more dramatic gain, in excess of 30 seats, is possible."

Rothenberg said that control of the Senate comes down to who wins the Republican-held seats in Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee. He said that Virginia Senate race could be affected by the New Jersey Supreme Court's ruling yesterday that same-sex couples in the state needed to receive the same state benefits as heterosexual couples. The Court gave the state legislature 180-days to come up with a law. In November, there is a proposed state amendment on the Virginia ballot which would ban same-sex marriage. Rothenberg says that conservatives in Virginia could be motivated to come out in greater numbers in support of Republican Senator George Allen in his tight race for re-election.

While recognizing the effectiveness of the Republican get out the vote efforts in the past, Rothenberg said "the mood is set."

Rothenberg said many Republican incumbents are "putting distance" between themselves and the President, focusing on their local opponents and trying to create a discussion that leaves the President out.

He says he has spoken to many Republican analysts and pollsters, and "they are petrified." He says that many Republicans analysts are telling him that negative, personal attacks in Congressional races "are bouncing off the Democrats" because of the "anti-those-in-charge mood" sweeping the country.

Rothenberg compares the 2006 House election to previous mid-term elections which resulted in huge losses to the controlling party. He mentioned 1974, when Democrats gained 49 seats, and 1994, when Republicans gained 54 seats. He says he doubts the Democratic gains this year will be as great, because redistricting has created so many Congressional districts which are overhelmingly Republican or Democratic.

In some districts, Rothenberg said, the national mood is so negative for Republicans "that it almost doesn't matter who the Democratic candidate is."