Edwards' Northern Strategy
By David Paul Kuhn,
CBSnews.com Chief Political Writer
The Southern man must soon take his battle north. But before Sen. John Edwards can claim the Democratic south, there is a general he must face.
Edwards' strategy is to knock out Gen. Wesley Clark, the former NATO commander, by winning both the Tennessee and Virginia primaries next Tuesday. After which, the Feb. 17 Wisconsin primary is looking increasingly like Edwards' best opportunity to prove he is not just a regional candidate.
"Edwards has to create the impression he is running a strong national campaign and you create this impression by winning Wisconsin," said Democratic strategist Bill Carrick, who advised Rep. Dick Gephardt's campaign. "Now, can Edwards finish a close second, it is of some value. But psychologically, the perception is always stronger if you win."
Although Edwards' campaign will not explicitly say it, Wisconsin is essential to his ability to take on Sen. John Kerry. After he handily won his must-win in South Carolina on Tuesday, beating front-runner Kerry by about 15 percent, and placed a close second to Clark in Oklahoma, Edwards became the best-positioned challenger. If he can sweep Virginia and Tennessee it is widely thought he will be Kerry's sole challenger. Then, the crucial fight will be in Wisconsin.
"I would say that Wisconsin is important but I would add that we have already shown that we are not a regional candidate," said Edwards campaign communications director David Ginsberg. "We came very close to first place in Iowa and we basically tied for first in Oklahoma, but there is no question Wisconsin is an important state."
Before Wisconsin, before Tennessee and Virginia, there is the Michigan primary this Saturday. It carries the most delegates of any state yet, 128, nearly as many as Tennessee and Virginia combined. Yet there is no Edwards' advertising in Michigan; there is no Edwards at all. He has yet to visit there this year.
"We had only three days to go to Michigan. It wasn't enough time to capitalize on the momentum behind this campaign," Ginsberg said, pointing out that their focus was on several of the seven Feb. 3 states. "We've got a plan to win this nomination and we have to focus on the states we can win in."
Momentum, the holy grail of presidential hopefuls, has been especially fluid for Edwards. The North Carolina senator tried to parlay his surprising second-place showing in Iowa into a strong finish in New Hampshire. He failed, placing fourth.
"The most important thing he's got to do is string together a Tennessee, Virginia and Wisconsin series," Carrick said. "He has to win all three."
To do that, his campaign says Edwards needs to maintain the same strategy that has gotten him this far – the "Two Americas" stump speech, the self-assured smile, the eternal optimism.
Yet in recent appearances, Edwards looks a little tired, his voice a little hoarse.
"Wouldn't you be," chuckled James B. Hunt, the former North Carolina governor and mentor to Edwards, who knows fully well how exhausting the campaign trail can be.
"But Edwards is as strong as an ox," says Hunt. "He has the strength, the determination to do what he has to do. And frankly, he has to carry a lot of it himself.
"Last December, a year ago, is when he came in and talked to me and said he wanted to be president. And he said it with such a force and conviction that I knew he meant it," Hunt continued. "He has to continue to speak to working-class folks, but he also is going to have to do it partly with his advertising."
On Wednesday, Edwards began running ads in Tennessee and Virginia; Thursday, he began in Wisconsin.
"Once you are beyond Wisconsin, we believe it will definitively be a two-man race, and at that point the whole dynamic changes," Ginsberg asserts.
The dynamic changes because the campaign goes national as it nears Super Tuesday, the biggest day on the primary calendar, with contests in states from New York to California.
"The one opportunity Edwards has is Wisconsin because it's like a billboard on the way to Vegas and Vegas is March 2," Carrick said. "If it's fair to put the burden on Kerry to be competitive in the Southern states, it's sure as hell fair to put the burden on Edwards to be strong in the Northern industrial states."