Dubya's Golden State Game

While Washington state and Oregon still qualify for "battleground" status in the presidential race because pollsters rate them as "too close to call," California does not.

The most recent voter surveys in the Golden State, the nation's largest prize with 54 electoral votes, show Democrat Al Gore leading Republican George W. Bush by 9-to-12 percentage points.

So why did Bush spend half of his three-day West Coast campaign trip this week in California, while making quick stops in Oregon and Washington where his chances appear better? The campaign's motives appear to be practical as well as political.

The Texas governor's campaign message was clear: to promote his proposals for education reform in appearances at several schools, public and private. On Wednesday, he visited a Roman Catholic elementary school in south central Los Angeles that he called a "beacon of hope." That setting was a perfect backdrop for his campaign theme of leaving no children behind.

Education is a major issue among voters across the nation, especially in California. It's also a key message for attracting women voters. Gore currently leads among this group, but the margin is not as great as Bush's lead among men. So, if Bush can make inroads with female voters, he could do serious damage to Gore's base.

But the message behind the message that Bush brought to California is that the state is still in play. By making one to two trips to the state per month since March, he seems to be making good on a promise to California Republicans that he will not write off the Golden State as Bob Dole and his father, former President George Bush, did. Such a decision could have dampened Republican turnout in November, and hurt candidates down the ballot in several key congressional races.

In an interview with CNN's Larry King taped in Los Angeles on Tuesday, Bush insisted he can carry the nation's largest state in November despite predictions by pundits who suggest he is California dreaming.

"I'm going to win California. I am. Please don't fall out of your chair," he said.

But Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California-Berkeley, said that when studying a candidate's motives, it's best to note his actions more than his words. Cain believes Bush is not currently running a campaign to win the state.

"They're not behaving like people who would normally be looking for votes," he said.

Cain observes the Bush campaign has not come near to spending the $20-$40 million it takes to compete seriously in California. Nor is it running television ads. The state Republican Party has paid for the few Bush ads that are on the air. Cain also said that Bush's recent stops in the San Francisco Bay area and Los Angeles don't make sense because those areas are not competitive for Republicans.

"Either he completely misunderstands California … or he's trying to keep the state) party happy," he said.

But Gerald Parsky, chairman of Bush's California campaign, points out that the campaign has opened almost 200 offices across the state and plans to have about 40,000 volunteers on the ground and working the phones on Election Day.

Parsky added Bush takes the state "very, very seriously" and even calls it a "battleground state," because "if we can win California, Gov. Bush will be president."

Here's another reason why Bush can't give the impression he is ignoring California: the state is as rich in campaign dollars as it is in electoral votes.

The governor spent much of Tuesday mingling with well-heeled donors at estates in northern and southern California. Fund-raiser events in Silicon Valley and Beverly Hills netted about $1.4 million for Golden State Republicans. Much of that money will finance TV ads that promote Bush for the White House.

The Beverly Hills event, which was closed to the news media, brought in about $1 million from a wide array of businesspeople, though few entertainment industry types attended, said campaign spokeswoman Lindsey Kozberg.

Republicans scolded Gore for raising $4.2 million in Beverly Hills last week from Hollywood stars and studio bosses after criticizing the industry for marketing violent entertainment to children.

"This is not a celeb-fest," Kozberg said. Campaign officials estimated that perhaps 5 percent of contributors in Beverly Hills had entertainment industry ties.