Dubya's Down But Not Out
So the Bush slump continues. Or so it seems. The controversial "RATS" ad being the latest example.
Somebody, apparently a number of somebodies, thought it was a good idea to subtly flash the word "RATS" across television screens during a Bush commerical, as part of an effort to attack Al Gore and his ideas on Medicare.
How and why this happened is less important than what it says about Governor Bush's continuing slide in public perceptions of who he is and whether or not he is qualified to run something as large, complicated and important as the American presidency.
The slump may or may not be justified. It may or may not be magnified by media coverage. But it is real. And in the most fundamental way it is not the result of press, radio and television stories. It is the result of what the governor himself and his staff have and have not done.
Bush is down, but he's not out. Far from it. Any reasonable, objective analysis of the most recent poll information, including the latest CBS News poll, leads to this conclusion.
It's certainly true that Bush is not in nearly as good a position as he was at the end of the Republican convention. And it's just as true that Republicans and others pulling for Bush to win have much to worry about. But reports of Bush being finished are premature to say the least.
Reasons: Number one, the election is STILL a long way off. Much can happen between now and November. Number two, despite having made more mistakes than Carter has little liver pills in recent weeks, Bush remains close behind Gore in most estimates, including the most reliable polls. In some, he's even with Gore. That Bush is in this kind of shape even after all the missteps shows he can take a hit, and that his political wounds are not yet fatal. They may, in fact, not even be that bad.
It also needs to be remembered that the race is for electoral votes in individual states, and by THAT measurement, Bush appears to be doing at least as well as Gore, perhaps even a little better. Bush has what appears to be solid support in many - if not all - Southern states, and in most if not all of the Rocky Mountain West. This remains a solid foundation for Bush to fight back, come back, and win. Maybe, in the end, he won't, but it is still far too early to say that he can't.