Double The Deficit?

Lagging federal tax revenues could cause this year's budget deficit to swell beyond $100 billion, more than twice what Congress had anticipated, according to preliminary estimates.

Projections by public and private budget analysts indicate that individual tax receipts are running about $40 billion below earlier estimates.

If those trends hold after all the checks are counted following the April 15 tax filing deadline, the deficit for the fiscal year ending Sept. 30 could be $30 billion to $70 billion higher than expected.

The Congressional Budget Office had estimated a fiscal 2002 budget deficit of about $46 billion. That took into account the economic slowdown, the effects of President Bush's tax cuts and a measure recently passed by Congress to stimulate the economy.

Trent Duffy, spokesman for the White House Office of Management and Budget, said Friday that the administration had projected a $106 billion deficit for fiscal 2002 and "it is not surprising that receipts are down in a recession."

Administration officials pointed to Friday morning's Commerce Department report pegging first quarter economic growth at 5.8 percent, the strongest showing since the end of 1999, as evidence that the tax cuts and economic stimulus measures were working.

Still, if the deficit rises as many expect, it will increase pressure on Congress to hold down spending and place another obstacle in front of lawmakers seeking more tax cuts. Mr. Bush has threatened to use his veto to keep spending in line, including efforts to add to a $27.1 billion supplemental spending bill the president has proposed for the anti-terrorism campaign at home and abroad.