Dems, GOP Chase Congress Jackpot

With just a few days to go to the crucial midterm elections that will decide control of Congress, it's still hard to tell which way the political winds are blowing.

No clear trends have emerged that would point to victory for either party. Neither the war on terror (a GOP strong suit) nor the economy (a Democratic strength) appear to have given either party an edge with voters.

As a result, many analysts expect voters to endorse the status quo, with the Democrats retaining control of the Senate and Republicans remaining masters of the House.

Two-thirds of the nation's statehouses are also up for grabs, and Democrats are expected to make some gains. Republicans now hold 27 governor's seats, compared to 21 for Democrats and two independents.

But despite the importance of the election to the parties, there appears to little enthusiasm among voters, and analysts say turnout is expected to be low.

In the 1998 midterms, turnout was just 35.3 percent of the voting age population, the lowest figure since 1942, said Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate.

"There's nothing in the figures on voter registration, primary turnout or voter interest in the polls we have seen so far that suggests this will be an election where turnout will be higher," he said.

A CBS News/New York Times poll released Saturday shows fewer than half of those surveyed finding the election interesting, and only one in three saying they are more enthusiastic about voting than usual.

Nearly eight in ten registered voters are paying at least some attention to the campaign in their area, but only 36 percent are paying a lot of attention. That is similar to voters' attention to other midterm elections. A third say they have more enthusiasm than usual about voting, but even more -- 42 percent -- report less enthusiasm.

Some 45 percent of registered voters describe the election as interesting, and 43 percent think it is dull, according to the survey.

Republicans are defending a six-seat advantage in the House, where all 435 seats are up this year, though only a few dozen races are considered competitive. In the Senate, the breakdown is 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, one independent and one vacancy – created by the death last week of Minnesota Democrat Paul Wellstone.

So what's on voters' minds as the election nears? A CBS News/New York Times poll conducted earlier this months shows it's the economy. Even though terrorism, along with the prospect of war with Iraq, looms high among the public's concerns, it's the worsening economy that voters want to hear about from the candidates.

Seventy percent of voters say they want to hear what candidates have to say about the economy, while just 17 percent want to hear the candidates' positions on Iraq.

"The war on Iraq is not on the table in this election in a significant way," said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster.

Republicans are hoping to break tradition and make midterm gains that deliver them full control of Congress. But that will take some doing. The party in power in the White House has lost House seats at every midterm election except three since Abraham Lincoln was president, and last gained Senate seats at a midterm election in 1982.

"The White House would like to defy history this year," presidential spokesman Ari Fleischer said last week.

Without knowing how Republicans will fare, the spokesman was reluctant to call the election a mandate on the president's agenda.

"In some places it's going to be a reflection of local circumstances, in others it may be a reflection of the president's message," Fleischer said.

Though they need to pick up just one seat to take over the Senate, Republicans have their work cut out for them, says CBS News Senior Political Editor Dotty Lynch.

Republicans have 20 seats to defend, compared to 14 for the Democrats. And the retirements of four popular GOP senators from Southern states – Jesse Helms of North Carolina, Strom Thurmond of South Carolina, Phil Gramm of Texas and Fred Thompson of Tennessee – make the task even more formidable.

Some unexpected - and in one case tragic – events have also thrown Senate races in several states into last-minute turmoil.

In Minnesota, former Vice President Walter F. Mondale is the new Democratic nominee, replacing Sen. Paul Wellstone, who was killed in a plane crash on Oct. 25. Mondale, 74, enters what had been a tight race between the liberal Wellstone and Republican Norm Coleman, a former St. Paul mayor.

The 74-year-old Mondale's name and stature made him the only candidate seriously considered by Democratic leaders for the job of pulling together a campaign and winning an election in less than a week. Wellstone's two sons had asked Mondale to run.

Another Democratic elder statesman and former senator, Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey, is also attempting a comeback as a replacement candidate. Lautenberg, 78, was named the Democratic nominee after Sen. Robert Torricelli withdrew following an ethics scandal and sagging poll numbers. Lautenberg survived a court challenge from Republicans, who argued that his name was added to the ballot too late.

And in Montana, Republican challenger Mike Taylor "suspended" his campaign against incumbent Democrat Max Baucus after the Democrats aired an ad containing footage from one of Taylor's own 1980s ads showing him in an open shirt with gold chains across his chest, giving another man a facial. Taylor said the ad implied he was homosexual, a charge the Democrats denied.

Other Senate races worth watching: