Democratic Jitters In California
Some California Democrats are getting nervous about Al Gore's strategy in the Golden State.
Garry South, a top adviser for Gore in California, said this week that the vice president has done too little point out the Clinton administration's successes - and has failed to respond to TV ads for GOP rival George W. Bush that are running in the state.
"We're at a critical juncture here where there has to be some serious recalibrations with what we're doing, or we could be in trouble," said South in a speech to the Sacramento Press Club.
Though he and other political observers still predict Gore will win California's 54 electoral votes, South said the race has tightened to "single digits" in state polls he has seen - a decrease from an independent Field Poll released earlier this month which gave the vice president a 13-point lead over Bush.
South put part of the blame on the Gore campaign for not doing enough to emphasize Bush's record as Texas' governor. "Californians are not yet onto the fact that there's a huge chasm between what George W. Bush is blabbering about and what he can actually prove up on," said South.
The Bush campaign, which has long fended off questions of whether it will write off California, seized upon South's call for "recalibration."
"How can you recalibrate what you're doing if you're not doing anything?" said state Sen. Jim Brulte, finance chairman for the California GOP. While Republicans are spending about $1.5 million a week promoting Bush in the state's expensive TV markets, the Democrats and Gore have spent nothing.
And that's not expected to change.
"Obviously it's an important state to us. Californians agree with Al Gore on most of the issues that count and that's why Al Gore is running strong in the state. And we have no plans to put ads on TV," said Gore spokesman Mark Fabiani.
"We're not in trouble here," said Bob Mulholland, a strategist for the California Democratic Party. Mulholland said Democrats have always known Gore's lead would dwindle to the single digits if the Republicans continued to pour money into the state.
Is there worry brewing among the Democrats? "There never was, and never will be," said Mulholland.
But others aren't so sure. Los Angeles-based Democratic consultant Darry Sragow suspects there's a reason South articulated his concerns about the campaign in such a public forum, calling it a "shot across the bow" to the Gore campaign to get its attention.
"The Gore campaign is clearly not paying enough attention to California," said Sragow, who served as state director for Gore's presidential bid in 1988 and currently advises Democratic candidates for state Assembly.
While Sragow acknowledges the campaign can't afford to spend too many resources and too much time in California when several key Midwest states remain up for grabs, he suggests that one or two "high visibility" isits to the state between now and Election Day would go a long way. Like South, he complained that the vice president's most recent visits have been to attend fund-raisers in the Bay Area and Los Angeles, where the Democrats already have a strong foothold.
"There has to be an Al Gore presence. You can't leave the playing field wide open," said Sragow, who's concerned about the size of Gore's margin of victory in November. "The better Al Gore does (in the state) the better it is for all of us," he said.
And that's what Cal-Tech political scientist Michael Alvarez sees at play in South's remarks: a concern among Democrats over Election Day turnout and the fate of Democratic state and congressional candidates down the ticket, many of whom face very tight races.
"What we're seeing here is frustration," said Alvarez, who believes Democrats have been discouraged by the erosion in Gore's standing in the polls. Considering such factors as the thriving economy and the similarity of Gore's positions with those of most Californians, "Gore should be eating Bush's lunch."
But he's not. And like South, Alvarez sees an apparent reluctance on Gore's part to emphasize issues that strongly resonate with Californians such as gun control, which Californians largely support and Bush opposes.
As an example, Alvarez cited two questions in the third presidential debate in which the Texas governor was asked about his lack of support of the Brady Bill and Bush's appearance of pride in the fact that Texas leads the nation in executions. "That was a softball (to Gore) to really nail down some important issues," said Alvarez.
Sragow believes that Democrats must be reminded that if Republicans win control of the Congress and the presidency "we'll see a reversal of policy in this country the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time. I'm astounded (the Gore campaign) is not making that point."
Still, he stressed there was no animosity between California and Nashville. "We're simply the early warning system," he said.