Cloud Computing's Real Enemy: Popularity
No doubt the iPhone's popular â€" and no doubt that AT&T has been feeling the operational heat. The recent New York Times article about customer anger at the often-overloaded AT&T network is nothing new to anyone who has watched the iPhone market. But the dynamics of smartphone use suggests that the drive to cloud computing had better be matched by a waiting information autobahn, as the virtual superhighway is proving itself inadequate to satisfy customer expectations.
As the article suggests, it may be that those using iPhones put a much heavier toll on AT&T's network. But blaming the customer won't moderate the problem that the entire industry is facing. For consumers at least, and I suspect for many corporations as well, cloud computing will become ever more synonymous with mobile computing. It's not that iPhones drive users data crazy. It's just that, given the ability, users want powerful Internet access when on the road. As Berge Ayvazian of Yankee Group has noted, Data traffic creates a big traffic spike for mobile operators, so network performance and coverage expansion will be a priority.
According to a recent report by consultancy Unwired Insight Limited, since 2007, 3G network operators have seen increases in data traffic ranging from 300 to 700 percent -- annually. These are companies with massive network pipes, but how can any business face such a regular onslaught on planning and infrastructure? Yet that, I suspect, is going to be the ongoing pattern. The problem isn't average network capacity. It's the issue of bottlenecks, particularly in highly populated urban centers. If data traffic is increasing three to seven times on average for wireless carriers, what are the local increases like? Ten-fold every year? More?
Clogging the wireless pipes becomes more obvious because the data has to share bandwidth with voice, but the same sort of localized phenomenon will happen with WiFi connections as well, because single locations become the bottleneck for all the people trying to connect. The pattern can already be seen in how telecom companies are trying to increase rates and put caps on how much bandwidth customers get. But the more capabilities are put into cloud delivery, the faster traffic grows. Given use patterns, and how cloud computing has the biggest natural draw to consumers when they're on the move, there's a good chance that a backlash could develop out of a perceived bad customer experience. Even in corporations, how long would it be before someone starts blaming the cloud vendors because access to given resources or tools becomes slow? And if cloud computing gets tarred with that brush, rightly or wrongly, it's going to give every vendor an additional business headache.
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