Chris Dodd's Retirement: The Good and the Bad News for Democrats
The five-term Democrat is expected to announce at Noon today that he will not seek re-election this year, facing poor polling numbers that began to sink two years ago amid his bid for the Democratic nomination for the presidency, his connections to a controversial mortgage loan program and his high profile role as chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.
Dodd's retirement could prove to be a good thing for Democrats, as the 2010 Connecticut Senate race was shaping up to be a referendum of his record.
"Without Dodd as a foil, Republicans chances of taking over a seat in this solidly blue state are considerably diminished," wrote Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post, who broke the news. "Former Rep. Rob Simmons and wealthy businesswoman Linda McMahon are battling it out for the Republican nod but either would start as an underdog in a general election matchup with [Attorney General Richard] Blumenthal."
Connecticut's attorney general is expected to announce at 2:30 today that he will run for Dodd's seat, the Hartford Courant reports.
Blumenthal is "uniquely suited to step into this campaign, win this race, and represent the people of Connecticut in Washington, D.C. as we continue to confront unprecedented challenges,'' Roy Occhiogrosso, a Democratic consultant, told the Courant. "The Republicans thought they might steal this seat. Not anymore."
The New York Times Sarah Wheaton writes that Blumenthal, "considered a golden boy of New England politics, has been patiently biding his time for a moment like this."
He was reportedly expected to run for Conn. Senator Joe Lieberman's seat when he ran for vice president in 2000, but the senator chose not to vacate his seat. Blumenthal said a run against the now-independent Lieberman in 2012 "would be a challenge that I would welcome."
Democrats may not lose any ground with Dodd's retirement, but it could still have a negative impact on the party, writes CBS News political consultant, the Atlantic's Marc Ambinder.
"Botton line: from a micro perspective, the GOP gains nothing from today. From a macro perspective, anytime three major Democratic party figures retire...ain't good for that party," Ambinder writes, acknowledging the retirements of the Democratic senator from North Dakota Byron Dorgan and Democratic Gov. Bill Ritter of Colorado, which were also announced in the last day. "The biggest lesson from today is psychological. There are a lot of Democrats who want to retire, and their colleagues, in essence, are giving them cover to do so. That's what makes Democrats so nervous."
Manu Raju and Josh Kraushaar of Politico agree that "the grim outlook for Democrats in the 2010 midterm elections just got a little worse."
"Democrats are now facing their bleakest election outlook in years—and the very real possibility the party will lose its 60-40 Senate supermajority after the November elections," they wrote.
Some Democrats have acknowledged that the rough election year will in part be the result of "a conservative backlash against Obama administration policies," write Peter Wallsten and Naftali Bendavid of the Wall Street Journal. Ben Smith of Politico adds that "the cycle seems to be a study in the limits of White House control of events. [New York Gov. David] Paterson, whom they pushed, is staying. Dodd, whom they may have tried to push, but ultimately resigned themselves to helping, goes."
Chris Dodd Announces Retirement, Says "None of Us is Irreplaceable"
Richard Blumenthal Prepares to Run for Chris Dodd's Senate Seat
Democrats Face 2 New Senate Seat Battles
Liberal and conservative blogs offered temperate predictions of how Dodd's departure would shape 2010.
"I'd call it more a re-arranging of the deck chairs that ends up keeping the ship afloat than a sign the Dems are capitulating on 2010," blogger Jeralyn wrote on Talk Left. "In other words, I'm not worried."
"A cold political calculation suggests that Democrats are probably in exactly the same electoral position today than they were yesterday, although they lose quite a bit in institutional Senate knowledge," offered Dave Dayen of progressive blog FireDogLake. "I think more than anything, this signals how bad a position incumbents are in this year. And it is a shame to lose Dorgan and Dodd, who both deserved a bit better than this."
Joe Sudbay on the liberal AmericaBlog noted, "Amazing that Lieberman will still be around, but Dodd will be gone."
Bloggers on the right had the same comment: "How's this for irony: who would have guessed three years ago that Joe Lieberman would have outlasted Chris Dodd?" writes Ed Morrissey of Hot Air.
Morrissey tries to stay optimistic about the GOP's chances in Connecticut, observing that "they have a couple of well-funded candidates vying for the nomination in Rob Simmons and Linda McMahon, while the Democrats will get a late start on the cycle, thanks to Dodd dragging this out as long as possible."
Meanwhile, most conservative bloggers aired their greivances with the retiring senator.
"Good riddance -- take a look at the kind of carnage Dodd will be leaving in his wake," Meredith Jessup of TownHall writes, pointing to his work on the banking committee and the mortgage loan scandal.