Chicken Little Takes On A Whole New Meaning In The Face Of Avian Flu Threat
I'm not ashamed to admit that I've been hysterically paranoid about the looming avian flu pandemic for a couple months now. What took me over the line between vague interest and genuine fear on this issue was a single line I read in the Washington Post on July 31. The article noted there is an experimental vaccine to combat a deadly virus, but warned:
If the vaccine proved effective and every flu vaccine factory in the world started making it, the first doses would not be ready for four months. By then, the pathogen would probably be on every continent.I think that timeline assumes some basic level of efficiency in the production process but it seems that very little goes exactly right these days. And there is that "if" qualifier to put a little more fear into the equation. If July 31st was my tipping point, did the media, government and nation reach their own this week?
This is not an issue that suddenly leapt onto the nation's agenda from out of nowhere. A quick database search shows that four major newspapers – the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and Los Angeles Times – had mentioned avian flu in 111 stories over the past six months alone. We've heard scary stories about contagious diseases (remember smallpox and anthrax?) since 9/11.
So what got caught everyone's attention this week?
You could say the exact moment we reached the tipping point came during President Bush's press conference Tuesday when he was asked a question about it. The response was pretty jarring to anyone paying attention. The president said, in part:
I have thought through the scenarios of what an avian flu outbreak could mean. I tried to get a better handle on what the decision-making process would be by reading Mr. Barry's book on the influenza outbreak in 1918. I would recommend it. The policy decisions for a president in dealing with an avian flu outbreak are difficult. One example: If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine? It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to affect a quarantine? One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move.What was shocking about that was the depth of the answer. It's pretty clear this is a topic he's been paying attention to in the midst of a war, catastrophic hurricanes and a Supreme Court nomination. And in a short period of time, he raised the spectre of the 1918 flu pandemic, the possibility of quarantines and the idea the military might be involved in that.
Just as important is that he was asked the question in the first place. Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt briefed members of Congress earlier in the week and whatever he told them, it was enough for the Senate to throw $3.9 billion dollars at the problem. Just this morning, Leavitt told CBS' "Early Show" that "no one in the world is ready" for an avian flu pandemic. Concern about this issue is something that has been spreading through Washington, forgive me, like a virus.
It's beginning to sound like a Stephen King-meets-Michael Crichton nightmare.
How much of this is prudent forethought and how much of it is meant to demonstrate the government's readiness remains to be seen. Just because this issue appears to have reached the tipping point and found a place on the agenda doesn't mean it belongs there or will remain for long.