CBS News Poll: What's Behind Clinton's Edge?
I've long been skeptical about "horserace" polls that try to measure a battle for the Presidential nomination months out--so as far as I'm concerned, you'd do well not to put too much into the new CBS News poll showing Hillary Clinton with a wide (45-25-14) lead over Barack Obama and John Edwards. As they say in the fine print in airline ads, these numbers are subject to change without a whole lot of notice.
But there is something revealing about the poll's findings about the "experience" vs. "fresh ideas" debate between Clinton and Obama. Right now, Clinton has the advantage. Why? Well, Democratic primary voters are more or less split between those who care more about experience, and those who care more about fresh ideas. But here's the key: "experience"-minded voters prefer Clinton over Obama by more than 3-1. But among the "fresh ideas" voters, Obama holds only a three-point advantage.
So: why does Clinton more or less erase Obama's presumed advantage on the "change" issue? First, she's hitting that theme almost as hard as Obama. "Are you ready for change?" she calls out to audiences on the campaign trail, as a sign behind her proclaims: "Ready to Lead, Ready to Change." Beyond her rhetoric, the simple fact that she is a Democrat carries with it the promise that she--as well as any Democratic nominee--will be very different
Moreover, if our poll is right, doubts have grown about Obama's experience--only 41% of Democrats think he has the experience needed to be president (Clinton gets an 80% positive response). And among all voters, 51% said they do not think Obama has the necessary experience--last January, only 31% expressed such doubts.
The poll also asked about Obama's name. One in 10 respondents said it sounded somehow foreign or strange--and four in 10 thought it might be a problem for voters.
Familiarity could well make that a non-issue. But the challenge for Obama is twofold: convince voters he does have the experience--or at last the judgment--for the White House, and define what he means by "change" a lot more sharply than he has so far.