Campaign Memo: Palin and Obama's Impact in 2010 Races

From now through Election Day CBS News chief political consultant Marc Ambinder will provide his keys to understanding the state of the campaign:

1. A lot of candidates in Democratic-leaning states are closing with Obama ads. He remains MORE popular than Democrats and the Democratic brand. Though the turnout for President Obama's rally in Columbus was 8,000, the Democratic National Committee says that 250,000 people have attended these big Obama rallies in the past two weeks.

2. Sarah Palin has a way of injecting herself into these elections whenever she pleases. She is probably responsible for getting Joe Miller nominated in the Alaska Senate race -- but her biggest impact, remember, is in South Carolina, where her backing saved Republican gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley in the primaries. Other than that, Palin has NOT been a potent force. (We will see if her last minute visit to West Virginia yesterday helps GOP Senate candidate John Raese.)

3. The DNC's last-minute cash infusion should remind us that as much money as the GOP was able to pump in using outside groups, Democrats have used their money much more efficiently. But the GOP has been able to keep candidates in position to win because of the outside help.

Critical Contests: CBS News Election 2010 Race Ratings

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5. The dean of the Nevada press corps, Jon Ralston, predicts a Harry Reid victory. And Democratic early vote numbers in Colorado and Nevada looking very solid.

6. So IF Republicans take control of the House by a narrow margin Tuesday, what will console Democrats? GOVERNORS race wins in Florida, Ohio and Colorado. Note Michael Steele's "37 seats would be great" comments, regarding the House of Representatives. Lowering expectations a bit.