Bush To OK Iraq Intel Probe

President Bush will sign an executive order to open an investigation into U.S. intelligence failures in Iraq, but it is unclear just what the probe will cover and how long it will take.

The investigation will examine Iraq and other intelligence issues dealing with stateless groups, such as al Qaeda, and secretive regimes, such as North Korea, a senior White House official said Sunday on condition of anonymity.

But it is unclear if the probe will examine merely the intelligence, or also look at how it was used by the president and aides.

The president's supporters say any problems with the case for war are due to bad intelligence, while Democrats contend that the Bush administration oversold the intelligence it had.

And the investigation's findings are not likely to be known until after November's presidential election. That could shelter the president from any fallout over the final report.

Mr. Bush's decision comes amid assertions that America's credibility is being undermined by uncertainty over flawed intelligence used as a basis for invading Iraq.

Despite months of searching, U.S. inspectors have found no banned weapons in Iraq. And while there is evidence Iraq maintained some capacity to make small amounts of biological and chemical weapons, no large-scale production programs have been uncovered.

Former Iraq weapons inspector David Kay has said the administration's intelligence on Iraqi weapons was "almost all wrong."

Mr. Bush initially reacted coolly to setting up an independent investigation, then decided during the weekend to go forward. By setting up the investigation himself, Mr. Bush will have greater control over its membership and mandate.

White House sources say the commission will be announced this week and get up and running quickly, reports CBS News White House Correspondent Bill Plante.

The senior White House official said it would be patterned after the Warren Commission, which conducted a 10-month investigation that concluded in 1964 that Lee Harvey Oswald acted alone in killing President Kennedy.

In appointing the nine members, Mr. Bush will draw heavily from experts familiar with problems in intelligence, the White House official said, describing them as "distinguished citizens who have served their country in the past." Brent Scowcroft, who served as the national security adviser to the first President Bush, is a possible member or chairman.

Sen. Jon Corzine, a Democrat from New Jersey, whose measure to set up a similar bipartisan commission to investigate prewar intelligence was defeated in the Senate last July, said any investigative panel must be able to probe the collection and analysis of intelligence as well as the use of the information, "including whether there was any misrepresentation or exaggeration of the intelligence."

"We must not lose sight of the big picture," Corzine said in a statement Sunday. "Americans are fighting and dying in Iraq because of what the administration told us about the intelligence."

Lawmakers from both parties say the intelligence flap has diluted America's credibility.

"The issue is not just shortcomings of U.S. intelligence," Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Nebraska Republican, a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Sunday on CNN, but "the credibility of who we are around the world and the trust of our government and our leaders."

Sen. Joseph Biden, a Democrat representing Delaware, agreed, telling CNN: "America's credibility's at stake. This isn't about politics anymore."

Some critics question why it has taken the Bush administration so long to take a second look at the Iraq intelligence. The weapons hunt to date has cost about $900 million. And Britain's Observer newspaper, quoting intelligence sources, policy makers and weapons inspectors, reports U.S. officials concluded as early as last May that there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

There was no indication when Mr. Bush would sign the order creating the panel. The White House also has not decided on a deadline for the investigation — a sensitive issue since its findings could become an issue in the presidential campaign.

"That's not something you want to do from horseback," Kay told Fox News. "It's going to be a time-consuming process. Whether it's going to take six months or nine months, I have no idea at this point."

David Albright, a former weapons inspector, told The Associated Press he feared the administration might try to use the commission as a way to delay judgments about the intelligence community and the administration's use of the information it receives.

"The bottom line for them (the Bush administration) is to delay the day of reckoning about their use of the weapons of mass destruction information," Albright said.

"David Kay can blame the CIA and say, 'Oh, I made all these comments based on what I heard from the intelligence community.' President Bush can't do that. He's the boss."

Meanwhile, British Prime Minister Tony Blair is facing growing pressure Monday to call his own inquiry into prewar intelligence. Opposition Conservative Party leader Michael Howard called for an independent inquiry.

"The importance is not so much whether the decision to go to war was justified. I think it was," Howard said. "The importance is whether we can in future have confidence in the intelligence material which is available."
Australian Prime Minister John Howard on Monday said his country's intelligence on Iraq came largely from the United States and Britain, as he sought to deflect criticism after the White House announced the probe.

Elsewhere on Monday, the head of U.N. weapons inspectors was scheduled to arrive in Moscow for talks with Russian diplomats on the possibility of returning his team to Iraq. U.N. inspectors were pulled out of Iraq in March, just before the U.S.-led war that ousted Saddam Hussein's regime. After the war, the United States deployed its own search teams and refused to allow U.N. inspectors to return.