Behind Edwards' S.C. Win

CBS News Political Consultant David R. Jones analyzes John Edwards' "must win" in South Carolina.

The main concern of voters in South Carolina was jobs, mentioned by almost half of all those who went to the polls. A majority (52 percent) of these voters supported Edwards. Kerry was a distant second among these voters, with only 25 percent.

Edwards was also the clear favorite among those who cared most about the issue of education (nine percent of all voters), garnering 55 percent of their votes. The only issue on which Kerry was favored over Edwards (34-24 percent) was the war in Iraq. However, this issue topped the agenda of only 11 percent of voters in the state.

South Carolinians said the candidate quality that was most important to them was a candidate who "cares about people like me." Those who shared this concern overwhelmingly supported Edwards, with 57 percent.

Edwards also scored big among the 13 percent of voters who said they wanted a candidate with a positive message, winning 58 percent of their votes. In contrast, Kerry was the favorite among voters who were most interested in a candidate who could beat President Bush (18 percent of all voters) or a candidate with the right experience (8 percent of all voters).

On the strength of these issue and character concerns, Edwards won among almost every demographic segment of the South Carolina primary electorate, in many cases overcoming perceived strengths of the other candidates.

For example, although both Kerry and Clark have emphasized their military service in this state, where veterans made up more than 26 percent of voters, Edwards carried 42 percent of the veterans vote compared to Kerry's 32 percent and Clark's 8 percent.

Al Sharpton hoped to draw strong support from the state's black voters —- who made up nearly half of the primary electorate —- but almost twice as many black Democrats voted for Edwards (36 percent) as did for Sharpton (19 percent). Kerry was a close second to Edwards among black voters, with 32 percent.

And despite Joe Lieberman's claim of being the only moderate Democrat in the race, Edwards was the dominant favorite among the primary's moderate and conservative voters -- who together comprised three-fifths of those at the polls -- winning almost half of their votes. Kerry was a distant second for both groups.

Similarly, Edwards won about half of the votes among voters who described themselves as political independents (23 percent of all voters), with Kerry second at only 21 percent.

While support for Edwards was strongest in South Carolina, similar patterns of support can be found in some of the other states where the Democrats were competing, such as Oklahoma and Missouri.

In those states, as in South Carolina, Edwards drew most of his support from voters concerned with jobs, voters who want a candidate who cares about them or who has a positive message, voters who consider themselves to be more conservative, and voters who call themselves politically independent.

The CBS News exit poll was conducted for the National Election Pool by Edison / Mitofsky among 1,982 voters in South Carolina. The margin of sampling error is + 4 percentage points.

David R. Jones is associate professor of political science at Baruch College, City University of New York. He the author of a book and several scholarly articles on American politics and voting behavior. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of California, Los Angeles.