Battleground Florida

In a game of Electoral Vote Monopoly, Florida would represent Boardwalk and Park Place. Valued pieces of property, yes, but players usually sacrifice several smaller plots on the board to afford it - and the strategy doesn't always pay off.

That's the type of gamble the campaign of Al Gore has opted to play, with hopes of a huge payoff. By taking Florida's 25 electoral votes, along with New York and California (which still looks like it's in the vice president's column despite a recent influx of new spending in the Golden State by Republicans), Gore would amass 112 electoral votes, almost half of the 270 he needs to win the White House. He would also deny George W. Bush these votes, which were once considered "safe" in Republican (and most pundits') calculations.

So far, the strategy appears to be working, at least for the moment, considering the topsy-turvy world of polling. In Florida last week, two statewide surveys showed Gore leading, while a third had Bush ahead. In none of these polls was the difference between the two men more than four or five percentage points. And that will likely continue to be the case until Election Day.

"I would be surprised if either one wins Florida by more than five percent," said Tom Carsey, a political scientist at Florida State University in Tallahassee.

To be a player in Florida, the Gore campaign has diverted time and resources to the Sunshine State that may have triggered erosion of his support in smaller states such as Oregon, Wisconsin, Louisiana, and West Virginia - states that Bill Clinton carried and the Democrats had planned to win. And the Gore campaign has been accused of all but ignoring California, where it hasn't run a single TV ad.

For his part, Bush has not neglected Florida, where his brother sits in the governor's mansion. Jeb Bush appeared on a Bush campaign visit to the state last week, along with another big gun: Arizona Senator John McCain. Through the start of October, the Republicans had spent more than $8 million on presidential ad campaigns - twice as much as was spent on Gore's behalf - and Bush is currently spending an estimated $1 million a week on ads in the state.

"It's hard to imagine a dramatic event happening in the next two weeks ... both campaigns have settled on a message, and will avoid making mistakes," said Carsey.

Rob Schroth, who conducts regular polling in the state for The St. Petersburg Times, has seen Gore extend his lead over voters aged 65 and over in recent months. And this powerful group, which comprises about a third of the voters who traditionally turn out on Election Day, is backing Gore by a 10 percent margin, according to a CBS News / New York Times Poll released last week.

"The early and consistent attacks that Gore has made on Bush's (plans) for Social Security and Medicare has finally started to pay off," said Schroth. His October poll found the issue of protecting thoe programs and improving education to be of the greatest importance among Floridians, far ahead of Bush's cornerstone issue of tax cuts.

Richard Scher, a political scientist at the University of Florida, said senior citizens in the state are some of the most independent of voters - and for most of them, the cost of Medicare and prescription drugs matters a great deal.

"People have this stereotype of elders in Florida as all being Republican and wealthy and living in Boca Raton … (but) many are lower and middle-class and living on pensions," said Scher.

The changing makeup of Florida's voters also defies the stereotype of a socially conservative southern state. Dr. William Frey, who recently completed a study on the migration of voting-age Americans in the 1990's for the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research, said the state has seen an influx of young workers flocking to service-oriented jobs. Frey also notes that Florida gained more blacks to its population than any other state in the 1990's, all of which gives the state a more moderate, suburban landscape than that of its neighbors.

The landscape which the campaigns and political observers will be watching the most extends across the central part of the state from Daytona Beach to Tampa, the so-called "I-4 Corridor."

"I think that is where this (race) is going to be settled," said Scher.

A third of the Florida's registered voters live in this swath of land where the breakdown of Democrats, Republicans, and independents - about a 40-40-15 ratio - reflects the state as a whole. And many of them have yet to decide whom to vote for.

"There are close to 30 percent of Florida voters who really haven't made up their minds," said Scher, who has studied Florida politics for over 20 years and said he's never seen an election quite like this one.

Carsey of Florida State also notes a particular emphasis on Democratic ads on the environment - particularly water pollution - which criticize Bush's Texas record. "It may be an effort to mobilize turnout … it may also be part of Gore's concern nationally regarding (Green Party candidate) Ralph Nader's political showing," he said.

Though Nader's numbers here have not extended much beyond the five percent mark in statewide polls, Carsey feels that relatively small changes - such as the turnout of African Americans (many of whom are still bothered by Gov. Jeb Bush's abolishment of Florida's affirmative action programs), the number of seniors who support Gore's Social Security plan, the extent to which Jewish voters will energized by Joe Lieberman's presence on the ticket, and the success of Nader - could all tip the outcome on Election Day.

The factors that determine the outcome are "really going to be at the margins," he said.