Battleground Florida

By David Paul Kuhn,
CBSNews.com Chief Political Writer

The president has visited Florida 19 times since taking office, more than any other state. It was the first place Kerry campaigned following his decisive victories on Super Tuesday, when he became the presumptive nominee.

Kerry campaigned across the state again on Monday. Speaking at rallies in Hollywood, West Palm Beach and Tampa, he called Mr. Bush the "great divider." He jabbed his right arm and continuously accused the president of "stonewalling" investigations into what led up to the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001. He was as aggressive as ever.

There is no state likely to be visited more than Florida in the eight-month general election to come. Of the four largest states, Florida is the only one that could be won by either the Republicans or Democrats.

The Sunshine State has even become more powerful, gaining two electoral votes since the 2000 election, and its demographic breakdown is relatively indicative of the country as a whole. It may be in the South, but it is no Georgia or Louisiana. The state is too influenced by snowbirds, by its population of former Northeast residents, to be pigeonholed as strictly Southern. And unlike much of the rest of the country, votes in Florida will not come down just to the economy.

"Florida has had positive job growth when everyone else has had a recession, and most people don't realize the number of new people that poured in, about 500,000," said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida and the state's most widely known political expert. "The loyalty factor and the hold of the 2000 election is not as great as what the national media is making it out to be. It still comes down to swing voters and the I4 Corridor."

One cannot talk about Florida politics without referencing Interstate 4. Spanning the width of the state from Tampa to Daytona Beach, the I4 Corridor, as it is called, includes St. Petersburg and totals 14 of Florida's 67 counties. As of April 2003, there were 9.3 million registered voters in Florida, 3.7 million of them in the I4 Corridor, according to the Florida Department of State.

Of those 9.3 million registered voters, about 3.6 million are Republicans, 3.9 million are Democrats and 1.7 million are neither. The bulk of these non-aligned voters live in the I4 Corridor.

The Republicans are hoping to make inroads into the non-Cuban Hispanic and the Jewish vote. Democrats are hoping to woo some of the Cuban vote and remain dependent on another high turnout by African Americans.

In 2000, 70 percent of African Americans voted, while during the 2002 gubernatorial election only about 45 percent voted, likely contributing to Gov. Jeb Bush's decisive victory over Democrat Bill McBride.

"Jeb Bush is an asset because he knows how to campaign in this state effectively and he reaches into parts of the electorate that tend to be ignored when you just pop into big cities," MacManus explained.

Across this country, the number 537 carries a particular poignancy; Florida's then 25 electoral votes were taken by this small margin in 2000. Mr. Bush won the presidency by a mere five electoral votes, leaving Florida the largest swing state by far and the central battleground to be in the 2004 election.

Of President Bush's $4.5 million inaugural advertising campaign that began on Thursday, $900,000 was spent in Florida, more than double any other state, The New York Times reported on Monday.

The latest statewide poll has Kerry leading President Bush by 6 percentage points. Conducted by the St. Petersburg Times and The Miami Herald, it showed Sen. John Edwards polling just as well as Florida's senior senator, Bob Graham, when attached to the Kerry ticket.

"Every four years we have to be reminded that people vote for the top of the ticket, not number two," MacManus said. "But the role of the running mate has changed, it is much more significant as a campaigner prior to the election than carrying a state on Election Day."

By David Paul Kuhn