Archive: Rep. Tom Davis

Veteran CBS News White House Correspondent Bill Plante brings a top political expert into the Smoke-Filled Room each week to answer your questions. His guest this week, Rep. Tom Davis, is in charge of the GOP’s effort to keep control of the House of Representatives.

Plante: Our first viewer, Aaron Kleinman writes, “You've obviously written off a lot of races. How do you decide which candidates to support? What do you tell candidates who are huge long shots and won't get any money from you?”

Davis: We take a look at polling in the district. We take a look at the historical behavior of the district. We look at the amount of money and support the candidate has been able to generate. There is no rule of thumb – a lot of this is instinct. Having dealt with a wide variety of races over a long period of time, a candidate who can’t raise money, that is in a district not traditionally Republican is unlikely to get funding, unless somehow the incumbent has done something to self-destruct. Raising money is the most objective criteria we have, and polling results would be the other. We usually insist on doing our own polls.

Plante: “Why are Republicans doing such a lousy job of campaigning for George Bush?” asks Tray Rudolph. He notes, “ For example, Rep. Connie Morella (R-MD) is co-chair of the state’s committee to elect Bush. However her support is less than enthusiastic – she disagrees with him on almost every issue – gun control, abortion, etc. She says she’ll support him, because hopefully people can change. What are you doing about this?”

Davis: You know Maryland is one of the ten most difficult states for Bush, even on a good night. I think what we need to realize is the Electoral College math dictates that you go in the states you’re most likely to win and you put your resources into those states. Maryland is just not one of those states for Republicans right now, just like Virginia is not for the Democrats. You could say the same thing about the Virginia Gore campaign – they have a few signs up around the state, but there’s no media to speak of, and no grass roots. What is unfortunate about the Electoral College is that if you’re not in one of those closely contested states, there is no presidential campaign. The resources go to the states that are on the bubble.

Plante: ”What happened to these important issues: Campaign finance reform? Tax reform?” John Robie wants to know.

Davis: Tax reform is still a very important issue and the voters show that. Campaign finance reform is generally between one and two percent of the voters in terms of its intensity. I think they’re still important issues, and I think they’re still things we need to discuss. But the voters sem to be interested in the candidates’ stands on education, on health care, on where they are on taxes and where they are on the economy. Those seem to take precedence at this point, in terms of the polling I’ve seen, the issue ads that I’ve seen and what the press is talking about.

Plante: ”Why does the GOP want to give a tax cut when our national debt is so high? Already nearly 25 cents of each tax dollar goes for interest on the debt. How do you justify this? Shouldn’t we pay down the debt before granting tax relief?” writes B. House.

Davis The Republican congress has paid down a half a trillion dollars of federal debt. We have reduced the amount of percent of the budget going for debt service from 17% when I came into congress, to 13% today, and it’s continuing to go down. The problem is, if that money is hanging around – earmarked for debt service – a lot of it usually gets spent on new programs. I think many Republicans feel the money would be better off in the taxpayers’ pockets and letting them spend it own their own behalf, than they would be letting government spend it on their behalf. The reality is, if you take a look at the 1998 budget battles, when money that was earmarked for deficit reduction was on the table, that it ended up being spent at the end of the day because politicians can always find some new program or some unmet need. That is what drives a lot of the enthusiasm for tax cuts – to get the money out of Washington before it is spent – not an aversion to paying down the federal debt.

Plante: Do you think campaign finance reform limits free speech? And do you think McCain/Feingold bill would put too much power and responsibility in the hands of the news media? James Gilmore is curious.

Davis: I think McCain/Feingold puts too much power in the hands of special interest groups and the news media. Special interest groups, because at the end of the day those groups can still advertise and run their soft money advocacy ads. I say that because that’s my reading of Buckley vs. Valeo, not because that’s the intended result. If interest groups can run advocacy ads in congressional districts with soft and corporate dollars, they can far outspend what any candidate can raise. McCain/Feingold makes it more difficult for candidates to raise money. I think candidates should control the campaigns – not outside groups. Candidates who run for office ought to be in control of the agenda and what is said and not said – not outside groups. Unfortunately, some of the cures that are offered in campaign finance reform seem worse than the disease. You have to remember that the current campaign problems resulted from reforms that came out of the Watergate era. We certainly need reform – I can think of two or three that I would embrace immediately, but I’m not sure tht McCain/Feingold as is currently written does the trick without some amendments.

Plante: Another viewer, Ryan Anderson questions, “Why aren’t the Republicans spending more time targeting younger voters? From all estimates, I am going to pay into social security my entire life, and then get nothing when I retire. I would like to have at least some control over where such a large chunk of my paycheck goes every month.”

Davis: Well that’s what George Bush has been talking about. He’s been talking about allowing younger workers to take part of the money they’re paying in – and it’s quite a bit – to the social security system and invest that money on their own behalf and try to get a larger return than the two percent that the federal government currently gets from its investments.

Plante: ”How is it that the Bush campaign and other Republicans have managed to let the Gore/Lieberman ticket hijack the "values" platform when in truth it has been the Republicans who, for years, have been the protectors of such things only to be shouted down, name called and laughed at by Hollywood, the liberal media and the Democratic party?” asks Liz Patton.

Davis: To me this is kind of astounding. I think everybody is for values and I think everyone recognizes there is a values crisis. But for the Vice President and the Clinton administration to be heralding this and being able to be the change in these areas, frankly baffles me.

I think what is happening as the debates unfold, and as particular issues and answers to the values crisis are articulated by the candidates, is that Governor Bush is regaining his momentum in these areas.

Plante: T. Callahan would like to know, “How will the crisis in the Middle East and the terrorist attack on a US ship affect the House, Senate and Presidential elections?”

Davis: No one knows. Frankly, when you get these kinds of episodes it’s kind of the last thing you think about. This is a time for the country to pull together. This is a time for the country to put up a united front against any outside terrorist groups or foreign countries that may pose dangers to us.

Having said that, there are two different tendencies of the electorate during these periods. One would be to rally around the President and the administration. Under that scenario, that would tend to help Democrats and incumbent congressmen. I use for example, the Bay of Pigs episode in 1962, which helped the Democrats in congress. The other would be the fact that maybe the President’s policies have not been as good and as solid as he has been making them appear from news cycle to news cycle. It may be that our economy isn’t as solid as these guys are out there trumpeting and taking credit for, and maybe this is the time to make a change for a bolder leader That would help Republicans. I don’t really know how it’s going to play, I think it’s too early for anybody to tell.

Plante: Final question – think you’re going to keep control of the House?

Davis: I do.

Plante: What to give some numbers?

Davis: I think it’s impossible. There are enough close races, but I think it’s going to stay pretty much where it is. I don’t think you’ll see either party gaining more than three or four seats. The reason is, the Republicans are going to pick up several Democratic seats and they have a seven seat lead. That means the Democrats have to pick up a total of about fourteen or fifteen of Republican held seats to take the House. Given the gains I think Republicans will make of Democratic held and open seats, I think that is probably not doable for them at this point. But, you know, there’s a month to go – anything can happen. You have to work right up until Election Day. A lot of these House races change in the last week. You need to keep an eye on them and try to manage them appropriately, continue to spend your money on media and keep your candidates out there talking to voters.