Analysts Mixed On Meaning Of New Google Click Data
This story was written by Joseph Weisenthal.
Last month, some ugly paid clicks data from comScore helped trigger a sell-off in Google (NSDQ: GOOG) shares, though the reaction prompted the research firm to suggest that its data had been misinterpreted. The firm has come out with data for February, saying that sponsored clicks were down 3 percent from the previous month, while up a modest 3 percent from the previous year. A number of analysts are out with reports this morning examining what the new numbers mean to Google:
-- Ben Schachter, UBS: "Feb. paid clicks data doesn't suggest a deterioration since Jan., but tepid 3% y/y growth is unlikely to improve sentiment (we note there is an extra day in Feb this yr). Queries were also disappointing, up 30% y/y, down from 39% in Jan and flat QTD sequentially. The data supports our cautious near-term view on GOOG shares, and regardless of comScore (NSDQ: SCOR), we believe that without meaningful monetization improvements, GOOG will have trouble meeting 1Q consensus #'s." His report does acknowledge, as has been much talked about, that some of the decline is due to improvement in ad quality, but that this improvement wouldn't make up for click weakness in the short term.
-- Doug Anmuth, Lehman: The report suggests Google is being hurt by three things right now: the economy, quality improvements and an overall slowdown in search traffic growth. His conclusion: "We do not believe Google's 1Q results will be as soft as comScore data suggests, but we also cannot ignore a second straight month (perhaps third if including December) of weak domestic paid click data. " As for the reliability of comScore's data, he calls it "directionally useful", meaning that the movement of the numbers tell more than the numbers themselves.
-- Jeffrey Lindsay, Bernstein: A more upbeat interpretation of the numbers: "While we think these paid click figures are disappointing, we do not agree that they indicate fundamental weakness with Google's paid search model. First, Google did not lose share of searches paid clicks were down across the board and Google actually managed to pick up 10 bps of core search share in January, and 70 bps in February. " The firm is still projecting Q108 revenue growth of 48 percent. In addition to the click data, Lindsay expects open wireless rules and the DoubleClick acquisition to be positive drivers going forward.
By Joseph Weisenthal