Aide Says McCain Is Best To Beat Clinton

Political Players is a weekly conversation with the leaders, consultants, and activists who are shaping American politics. This week, CBS News' Brian Goldsmith talked with McCain media strategist Mark McKinnon about President Bush, Hillary Clinton, and the importance of the New Hampshire primary.

CBSNews.com: The latest CBS News poll, out this week, shows McCain tied for second with Giuliani among likely voters in New Hampshire. Both of them are behind Mitt Romney. McCain's known to 100 percent of the people there. He won overwhelmingly eight years ago. How is he going to keep his promise to win New Hampshire this time?

Mark McKinnon: I think that it's important to recognize a couple things. One is that 60 percent of the voters in New Hampshire have yet to make up their mind. And it's very fluid up there, and the support is very soft for Romney. New Hampshire loves McCain. And they showed that in 2000.

And this is a different race at a different time. And he had a setback in the campaign that was due primarily to his endorsement of comprehensive immigration reform. That dropped him about 20 points in two weeks.

Now, when people left John McCain--when voters left him earlier this summer--it's not because they didn't like him. It's not that they didn't support his character and his record. But they didn't like the immigration proposal. And now the fact is that that's receded off the screen.

CBSNews.com: So what is McCain's position on comprehensive immigration reform today?

Mark McKinnon: Well, he says that he has heard the American people and that they have said that we've got to restore their trust in government. And part of restoring their trust in government is making sure that we secure the borders. So we've got to get that done.

Let me just also say to your question about New Hampshire, the other thing that voters are looking at in this is, they're looking at who can beat Hillary Clinton. And there was a poll out this week, and there have been several now that make it very clear that out of all the Republican potential nominees, John McCain by far is the best nominee for the Republican Party. Because he beats Hilary Clinton in a head to head match up.

CBSNews.com: Well, there was a little controversy about that this week. A woman asked Senator McCain, "How do you beat the five-letter-word-that-begins-with-b?" And he responded by saying that was an excellent question. Does he condone that kind of campaign discourse?

Mark McKinnon: No, he doesn't at all. In fact, he made it clear that he respects Senator Clinton. And he does. I'm quite sure that that's not the sort of appropriate framing of that question that he would endorse. He said he would have respect for whoever their nominee would be. And he's worked with Senator Clinton in the Senate.

CBSNews.com: In Iowa, Senator McCain begins with some difficulty because he's opposed ethanol subsidies. He skipped Iowa eight years ago. How well does he have to do there in order to get some momentum going into New Hampshire?

Mark McKinnon: You know, he has a huge handicap because of what you mention and the fact that he didn't really run in Iowa last time. That's a lot of ground to make up. But he pledged to campaign out there, which he has done. And so, I think just being out there has been good for the senator and been good for the campaign.

I'm not going to handicap what he needs to do. Just the fact that he's out there and campaigning I think is fulfilling his obligation. I think the end game of this whole Republican primary is New Hampshire. I think Iowa's important, but I think that the argument can be made that whoever wins New Hampshire is going to win the nomination.

CBSNews.com: And how do you think this campaign will be different than eight years ago when McCain won New Hampshire but lost the nomination because he lost South Carolina?

Mark McKinnon: Well, first of all, we've seen in South Carolina that there's a tremendous level of support for Senator McCain. Every election is not just about your candidate, but who the other candidates are. And I think, given McCain's background and given what's happened over the last eight years, that he's earned the respect and support of South Carolina, and they're well positioned to support him.

I just think whoever comes out of New Hampshire, if it's Romney, he will likely have won Iowa and New Hampshire, that'd be two in a row. If it's Rudy Giuliani, that means he's jumped the late state strategy that everybody predicted he'd be running, and so that will be a bit of a surprise, and so he'll get momentum coming out of New Hampshire.

And if McCain wins it, I think he goes on to win South Carolina and the nomination itself. It just puts a big premium on New Hampshire.

CBSNews.com: And since 1980, whichever Republican has won two out of three of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina has always gone on to be the nominee. Do you think that will be the case this time?

Mark McKinnon: Well, that's conventional wisdom. And conventional wisdom gets turned on its head all the time. Let's say Romney won Iowa and New Hampshire, I don't think that means he locks in the nomination.

I mean, you could have McCain or Thompson come in and win South Carolina. You could have Giuliani go in and win Florida. And then you could have a very interesting situation going into February 5th.

CBSNews.com: A lot of people have said they like Senator McCain, they respect Senator McCain, but he squandered a huge lead. He squandered a lot of money in his campaign. If he can't manage his campaign, how can he manage the country?

Mark McKinnon: Well, he squandered a huge lead because he had the principle and the backbone to stand up on an unpopular issue. That's what happened. And then he had the fortitude to take a look at his campaign and to make changes in the campaign and fight on and be a survivor, which is what you need in any president.

You don't need somebody that quits or crawls into a hole. You need somebody who can fight through the tough times and make tough decisions that Senator McCain did to right his campaign.

CBSNews.com: Turning to the president, the other prominent Democrat-turned-Republican on both of the Bush campaigns, in addition to you, was Matthew Dowd. And he gave a series of interviews in which he criticized the president for failing to reach across the political divide and saying that he had a "my way or the highway" approach to the issues. First of all, do you agree with any of Matthew Dowd's thoughts? And why do you think he's changed his view of Bush?

Mark Mckinnon: No. I will say that I don't agree with everything that the president has done. But those disagreements that I have, I keep to myself. And I communicate them privately, as I think anybody who's served the president should. And I've told that to Matthew face to face.

CBSNews.com: One of the criticisms of the president is that he doesn't respond well to being challenged. So when you say you disagree with him privately, how does he respond to that?

Mark McKinnon: He responds in a very upright fashion. That is a conventional wisdom about the president that's just wrong. I mean, he's got very strong personalities, like Karl Rove and Mike Gerson and Dan Bartlett and Karen Hughes, who have disagreed quite strongly with the president on numerous occasions. And that's why he has them around.

If he didn't like strong personalities and differences of opinion, he wouldn't have people like that in the White House. So, again, that's just a convenient fiction that continues to get promoted.

CBSNews.com: Has the president lived up to your expectations from 2000 when you said that you thought he'd be a uniter?

Mark McKinnon: Well, I think I would say--and I think the president would agree--that we've come up short on changing the tone of Washington. But I argue that the whole idea got killed in the crib because of the recount. And the recount just put poison in the well.

The Democrats didn't view this president as a legitimate president because of the recount. And so the president never got an opportunity. I mean, the environment was so dictated by that recount that it was just not possible. So I think that was an enormous factor in setting the tone in a direction that was unanticipated.