A Divided Electorate

Diana Pollich is a Senior Research/Account Director in the Public Affairs and Communications practice at RoperASW, specializing in public opinion polls and marketing research.

While exit poll data are not available, CBS News conducted its own independent survey over the weekend leading up to the election to tap into the minds of likely voters across the nation. According to the CBS News poll of likely voters conducted November 1-4, the voting public remains largely divided.

Identical proportions of likely voters believe things in this country are seriously off on the wrong track (45 percent) as believe things are going in the right direction (45 percent). By a margin of 70 percent to 23 percent, Republicans say things in the country are going in the right direction while Democrats, by a margin of 65 percent to 22 percent, say things are off on the wrong track. Independents are evenly split on this question.

The Economy Top Issue of Concern
Although the largest proportion of likely voters (52 percent) says their family's financial situation is about the same today as it was 2 years ago (with 27 percent saying it is worse), concerns about the nation's economy persist. Likely voters are twice as likely to characterize the condition of the nation's economy as "poor" or "not so good," (68 percent) than "excellent" or "good" (31 percent). Similarly, most likely voters are worried about the direction of the nation's economy in the next few years (66 percent) and the future performance of the stock market (58 percent).

Women are more likely than men to believe the current economy is faltering (73 percent vs. 63 percent say the current economy is "poor" or not so "good"), as well as to be worried about the direction of the national economy in the next few years (75 percent vs. 55 percent say they are very or somewhat worried). Democrats are also more worried than Republicans (84 percent vs. 46 percent).

The economy also tops the list of issues likely voters are concerned about this election. When asked which of several issues matters most to them, three in ten (28 percent) say the economy. Republican and Democrat likely voters are equally likely to cite the economy as the most important in their vote.

Education is the single most important issue for 14 percent, followed by similar proportions citing terrorism (13 percent), and healthcare (13 percent), and social security (11 percent). The war with Iraq is considered the most important issue by 10 percent. Corporate reform is cited by 4 percent of likely voters.

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to cite issues like healthcare (16 percent vs. 9 percent), social security (18 percent vs. 7 percent), and education (15 percent vs. 10 percent), while Republicans are more likely than Democrats to cite terrorism (19 percent vs. 6 percent). Democrats and Republicans are equally likely to cite the economy as the most important issue when deciding how to vote.

Electorate Split On National Priorities
While fully 75 percent of likely voters say they are worried that there will be another major terrorist attack in the United States and 68 percent say the US economy is faltering, the nation is divided on how the nations should set its policy priorities. Nearly half (47 percent) say that terrorism and national security should be the higher priority, while 46 percent say the economy.

Revealing clear partisan fault lines, most Democrats feel the economy should be the higher priority (62 percent), while most Republicans (67 percent) say national security should be the nation's higher priority.

Six in ten likely voters (58 percent) support military action in Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein, while 33 percent oppose such an action. Most Republicans (82 percent) support military action, while most Democrats (55 percent) oppose it.

The "W" Factor
As the electorate is split on its evaluation of the of the job the Congress has been doing (42 percent approve while 46 percent disapprove), one question on the minds of pundits is how much of an influence President Bush will be on the decisions rendered in voting booths across the nation today.

Despite high approval ratings overall, most likely voters (55 percent) indicate that Bush would not be a factor when casting their vote for Congress. Still, four in ten say the President will be a factor, and more say they would cast their vote to support the President (27 percent) than to oppose him (15 percent).

Among likely voters who identify themselves as Republicans, 56 percent say they would cast their congressional votes in support of Bush while 41 percent say Bush would not be a factor. Among Democrats, 58 percent say Bush would not be a factor in their vote, while 30 percent say their vote would be in opposition to Bush.

Six in ten likely voters (61 percent) approve of the way George W. Bush is handling the job of president. However the President earns higher approval from likely voters for his handling of terrorism (68 percent) than for his handling the economy (55 percent). Republicans are nearly unanimous in their approval of the way Bush is handling the job of President (95 percent), while Democrats disapprove by a two to one margin (59 percent vs. 30 percent). In contrast to Democrats, Independent likely voters are twice as likely to approve of the President (57 percent) than disapprove (30 percent).

The CBS News poll was conducted via telephone by RoperASW. The sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

By Diana Pollich