Historians have an envious perch from which to offer a definitive opinion on when a business model started to come apart. For Kodak, the arrival of the first digital cameras for consumers at the end of the 1980s would be such a landmark.
What are the ways you can recognize warnings in real-time that your business is under attack? Business consultant Rita McGrath offers three such signposts in the latest issue of Harvard Business Review. They are:
- Fewer innovations. The first sign is when next-generation innovations offer smaller and smaller improvements. "If your people have trouble thinking of new ways to enhance your offering, that's a sign," McGrath says.
- Customers tell you. If you listen to your customers, they will be happy to tell you when new alternatives are increasingly acceptable to them.
- Bottom line problems. Problems start to show up in your financials or other performance indicators.
The good news is that long before your Titanic hits the iceberg you should have adequate warning to steer a different course. The bad news is that leadership often fails to recognize the signs. Says Harvard Business School historian Richard Tedlow:
"Denial is not merely being wrong," he says. "Everybody makes mistakes. Denial is falling into a cognitive Bermuda Triangle. Everything is clear, yet you lose your bearings." One key to avoiding denial is to empower and trust middle managers who are often the first to spot trouble brewing.
I predict a fairly quick demise for the digital photo frame. To see why, just look at the bottom of the unlock screen on an Apple iPad. You'll see a button that turns the device into a photo frame, which can be easily propped up on a table. Currently it only pulls up photos from your own photo collection, but you can see how it could be jiggered to display family photos sucked in from various sites, as photo frames now do. I'll bet that most of the millions of tablet computers to ship from a multitude of manufacturers over the next 12 months will include this feature.
Look around. What businesses do you think are about to be disrupted?