"Every year is different": Hydrologists unpack rising spring flood concerns
By WCCO's Joseph Dames
MINNEAPOLIS -- When you see all this winter snow, you're likely thinking spring flooding; and when you think of spring floods, you may think of the Red River flood of 1997. But hydrologists say this year can't be compared to the past.
Hidden in the snow is the certainty of running water. As the spring sun clocks in and warmer days show up, rivers are expected to rise.
RELATED: NOAA still cautions potential for "major" spring flooding along Mississippi River
Craig Schmidt studies water and its movement.
"With that amount of water out there, the fact that we will have flooding is not in doubt," he said. "The snowpack this year is so widespread, basically spread across the entire upper Midwest. It's hitting every river basin: the Minnesota, the upper Mississippi, the St. Croix, the Crow, all of those. If they all start melting at the same time and it comes together, the mainstem rivers are going to probably have its biggest threat."
In April 1997, the snowpack was off the charts, as the prior fall was very wet. The ground was frozen, and a lot of rain came through. The result was an extremely swollen Red River.
"The flood of '97 was definitely historic up here in the Red River Valley. Every year people reference back to it," Schmidt said.
Now, with April just days away and a significant snow season, the conversation can't help circle back around.
"Snowfall back then was well above normal for the winter season. We are above normal this year too, but it's still short 30, 40, 50 inches in some places from the snow we had back then," Grand Forks hydrologist Amanda Lee said. "The bottom line is that every year is different."
As for the Twin Cities, the sentiment is identical.
"A lot it will really depend on what type of weather that we will have. The end of March looks favorable but we do not know what April brings yet," Schmidt said.
The National Weather Service says that over the past seven decades, we've only seen between five and 10 years with this much snow water on the ground.
