DeFede: Primary Night 2010 Winners And Losers

MIAMI - (CBS4) - In every election there are winners and losers -- the people with the most votes win, the rest, well, you get the point. But beyond obvious winners and losers there are others whose own fortunes rise and fall with the results of somebody else's election.

So let's analyze the results and determine the real Winners and Losers of Primary Night 2010:

1. Kendrick Meek defeats Jeff Greene

First let's give Meek his props. Not only did he beat billionaire Jeff Greene, he wiped the floor with him garnering 57 percent of the votes to Greene's 31 percent. And even though Greene ran an awful campaign and his personal life made him seem more like a character in a Carl Hiaasen novel than a legitimate candidate, he was still a serious threat because of the millions he was willing to spend. So Meek's convincing win is more than just a win, it gives him the type of momentum few thought he would have coming out of this race.

Now that brings us to who the other winners are from this race: By far the biggest winner is Marco Rubio, the Republican nominee in the Senate race. Meek's strong win helps Rubio immensely. Conversely, the biggest loser out of this race is Gov. Charlie Crist. Here's why: In order to win a three way Senate race, Crist needs to not only collect moderate Republican and independent voters, he absolutely has to peel away Democratic voters as well. If Jeff Greene had won, there would have been a stampede of Democratic officials lining up to endorse Crist.

This morning I spent an hour on the radio with Bishop Victor Curry, the head of the Miami Dade NAACP, and he said he never would have supported Greene because of the way Greene attacked Meek's mother, the beloved former congresswoman Carrie Meek. Curry said he would have helped lead the campaign in the black community to get Charlie Crist elected. Now that possible stampede to Crist is gone. And what is worse, Democrats who privately believe Meek has no chance of winning in November are now unable to do anything about it. Even if they believe the best way to stop Rubio is to get moderate (aka Anglo) Democrats to vote for Crist, they have to publicly support Meek or risk the wrath of African American voters.

I spoke to Meek this morning about this notion and he said he is confident that the Democratic establishment is with him and that once he starts defining the differences between himself and the other two candidates (Rubio and Crist) his numbers will come up in the polls. (He's been mired for months at 18 percent in a three way race.) Nevertheless, the popular wisdom the morning after the election is that Meek's victory makes Rubio the favorite to win the U.S. Senate race.

While Meek's victory may help the Republican candidate for Senate, it absolutely helps every other Democrat on the ballot, which is why Democratic candidate for governor Alex Sink is also a big winner today. If Jeff Greene had beat Meek, African American voters may have stayed home this November, unable to get excited about any of the races on the ballot. In order for Alex Sink to beat Rick Scott, she needs a large turnout in the African American community. Kendrick Meek's name on the ballot will help drive African Americans to the polls. But Sink isn't the only candidate that needs a high turnout among African Americans -- Dan Gelber, the Democratic nominee for Attorney General; Joe Garcia, the Democratic nominee in the 25th Congressional District; Ron Klein, the Democratic nominee in the 22nd Congressional District; and Alan Grayson in Central Florida's 8th Congressional District, all must have overwhelming support, and high voter turnout, in the African American community if they are to have any chance at winning their races.

The biggest loser in the race, besides Crist, is the world of yachting. Not since Gary Hart was pictured aboard the Monkey Business with Donna Rice in his lap has a boat taken such a beating in the press. Greene's yacht, Summerwind, was blamed for tearing up the Coral Reef in Belize, violating the embargo with Cuba, and aiding and abetting Mike Tyson and Lindsay Lohan's wild lifestyle. It is as if the boat went on a drunken crime spree with poor Jeff Greene along for the ride.

It will be a long time before any politician, or potential politician, say, "Hey, I think it would be cool to buy a yacht."

To recap the Meek-Greene race:
Winners: Meek. Rubio. Sink. Gelber. Garcia. Klein. Grayson.
Losers: Crist. Republican Party candidates in general. Yacht manufacturers.

2. Rick Scott beats Bill McCollum

Bill McCollum wouldn't concede defeat until Wednesday morning, and even then he didn't endorse his opponent. So in the same way Meek's victory was more than just a win for him, McCollum's loss is more than just a loss for McCollum. The soon to be erstwhile Attorney General ends his political career as a sore loser. (And this pretty much has to be the end of his political career. I mean seriously, how many time do voters in across the state have to NOT vote for the guy before he gets the message?)

For his part Scott has to come out of this feeling pretty good. How hard would it have been for him to wake up Wednesday morning if he had spent $50 million of his own money and LOST the race? If I would have spent that kind of money and lost, I'd be in the fetal position on the floor of my bedroom for at least a week. Although it would have given rise to a cool campaign souvenir. I was planning on printing up and selling T-shirts online with Scott's face alongside the words: "I Spent $50 million On The Florida Governor's Race And All I Got Was This Lousy T-shirt."

So who are the big winners? Well first and foremost, general managers at local TV stations across the state of Florida. While Greene pumped a lot of his own money into TV commercials in the Senate race, it was nothing compared to the amount of money Scott spent in the primary. And if the folliclely-challenged health care executive was willing to bankroll almost $40 million in TV commercials alone leading up to Tuesday's election, who knows how much he will spend over the next nine weeks.

The other big winner, Florida's Tea Party movement. Scott ran against the Republican establishment in the state. Party bosses across the state endorsed McCollum, as did Jeb Bush. But voters rejected all of them and in effect made this primary a referendum on the state party's leadership. Following the scandal of recently indicted Republican Party of Florida chairman Jim Greer, Republican primary voters were angry and Scott tapped into that anger effectively. (In the Senate race, Greene tried to ride the same wave of discontent, but Democratic voters weren't as interested in burning down their own house and starting over from scratch.)

The problem now for Scott is how does he get some of those establishment Republicans back on board, because he will need their help in the general election against Democrat Alex Sink. Scott also is now so far to the right on so many issues that he has opened the door for Sink to not only try to scoop up independents but also moderate Republicans, especially women, who may be turned off by his strident views on abortion.

So while conventional wisdom has Rubio coming out as the presumptive favorite in the Senate race, you would also have to give the early advantage to Alex Sink to win the Governor's Mansion. And since that's the case, another winner Tuesday night was President Obama. (How often do you see the Tea Party and President Obama both be winners on the same issue? You gotta love Florida.) One of the most important -- if not the most important -- race across the country the White House will be watching this year is the Florida governor's race. The White House wants Sink to win so that they can have a Democrat in Tallahassee keeping an eye on things when the 2012 presidential election rolls around. You can expect the President to make a few trips to Florida in the next nine weeks, to both campaign for Sink but also to help her raise a ton of cash to try and stay competitive with the tens of millions that Scott will spend.

One final winner from this race is the guy who dresses up as a doctor and chases after Scott at campaign events shouting at him through a bullhorn, "Release the deposition!" The deposition in question details Scott's answers to questions surrounding his knowledge of the fraud that took place at the healthcare company Scott used to run, HCA. The company ended up paying a $1.7 billion fine -- the largest in history -- to the federal government after it was caught cheating the government on Medicare payments while Scott was CEO. Several executives pleaded guilty as well. Scott maintains he knew nothing about what was happening within his own company, but he also sought to have a deposition he gave during a civil lawsuit sealed so that his answers wouldn't be revealed.

As a result, there is a guy who dresses up like a doctor and follows Scott shouting, "Release the deposition!" If Scott had lost, Release The Deposition Bullhorn Guy would have been out of a job. Now he gets to taunt the campaign for nine more weeks.

To recap the Scott-McCollum race:
Winners: Scott. Local TV Stations. The Tea Party movement. President Obama. Sink. The Release The Deposition Bullhorn Guy.
Losers: McCollum. T- shirt manufacturers. Republican Party establishment.